1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is strong. At present, the average market price in Shandong is about 69000 yuan / ton, up 43.01% from the average market price of 48250 yuan / ton on October 7. On October 12, the bromine commodity index was 240.35, up 4.82 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 307.93% from the lowest point of 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Bromine prices have risen to their highest level in 10 years. On October 13, the average market price was 69000 yuan / ton, which was about 24200 yuan / ton higher than the bromine price monitored by the business society on October 17, 2011, and the price increase has reached 185.12%.

As can be seen from the weekly histogram of bromine of business society, the price of bromine has been rising since August 23. Especially after October, prices rose like a tide.

2、 Market analysis

Raw materials: according to the survey data of business society, bromine has increased by 51.17% in recent three months. In the past three months, the increases of soda ash, sulfuric acid and sulfur in the upstream of bromine were 84.86%, 59.45% and 26.24% respectively. On June 13, the average market price of sulfur was about 1613.33 yuan / ton, and on October 12, the average market price was 26.24 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 26.24%. On October 12, the domestic sulfur market was sorted upward. Refineries in various regions adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. Except that the price of liquid sulfur was stable in East China, the price in North China and Shandong increased by 60-70 yuan / ton. The domestic refinery inventory is low, the manufacturer’s quotation is strong, the downstream traders purchase on demand, the enterprise shipment is stable, the low price in the field is difficult to find, the future sulfur market is high, wait and see, and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

In terms of supply: the tight overall supply has led to the upward trend of domestic bromine prices. At present, Shandong enterprises mainly report about 65000-70000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is running at a high level. The output of bromine enterprises in Shandong fell, first, due to precipitation, and second, due to environmental protection policies, the overall supply of output was tight.

The overall demand of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry is relatively positive. The main downstream flame retardant market generally performs well, with obvious support for bromine price, spot shortage of bromine and upward bromine price in the short term.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow, and the output of bromine enterprises is generally low. Now the construction of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries still supports bromine, and the demand for bromine is acceptable. However, under the current high price, the cost of bromine downstream enterprises increases, the pressure appears, the acceptance of bromine is limited, and there is resistance. However, considering the impact of the current policy of production and power restriction, the bromine supply is reduced. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will still be high in the later stage of consolidation and operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

Trade name: acetic acid

Latest price (October 13): 8870.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the acetic acid market operates at a high level, the domestic acetic acid enterprises have a low inventory, the market quotation is high and strong, but the downstream operation is low, traders mostly purchase on demand, the actual transaction negotiation of enterprises is mainly, the short-term market is high, and the on-site operators have a wait-and-see mentality.

Future forecast: at present, the downstream demand is general. When the domestic acetic acid plant gradually recovers, the market inventory may accumulate, and the future market may be downward. Pay attention to the downstream transaction.

Since the beginning of October, the domestic liquefied gas market has continued to rise in price and the focus has shifted upward. At present, the average price of civil gas in Shandong is above 5700 yuan / ton, breaking the highest point in the year, reaching 6000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5273.33 yuan / ton on September 30 and 5710.00 yuan / ton on October 11, with an increase of 8.28% and 63.61% compared with January 1.

As of October 11, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 5550-5850 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 5700-5950 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 5830-6150 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 5600-5830 yuan / ton

Since this year (2021), the overall trend of domestic liquefied gas has been strong, and the price is at a relatively high level. In October, the price of liquefied gas civil market continues to rise, and the overall focus has shifted upward. At present, the civil ex factory quotation of liquefied gas in Shandong is mostly above 5700 yuan / ton, breaking the highest point in the year and sprinting through the 6000 yuan barrier.

The beginning of October was the national day. Although the 11th National Day holiday was ushered in, the price rise in the domestic liquefied gas market did not stop. During the holiday, the price continued to rise, the rising trend remained unchanged after the festival, and the focus still shifted upward. At present, the market is dominated by positive factors. With the introduction of the sharp rise in CP price in October, it has significantly boosted the domestic market. In addition, the international crude oil price is strong and upward, and the news is good for the market mentality. During the holiday, the civil price of liquefied gas rose sharply. However, negative factors still exist. As the current price rises to a high level, the resistance in the downstream after the festival increases, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, and the market shipment turns light. Shandong civil gas market slightly lowered the price on the 9th, focusing on shipments. However, due to the continuous rise in the prices of related products, the price of liquefied gas for civil use rose again on the 11th. At present, the mainstream quotation of Shandong civil gas is 5600-5830 yuan / ton, and the upstream inventory is mostly controllable.

After the festival, the trend of LPG futures market was strong, which brought some support to the spot market. On October 11, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2111 was 6482, the highest price was 6803, the lowest price was 6430, the closing price was 6755, the former settlement price was 6480, the settlement price was 6635, up 275, or 4.24%, the trading volume was 162007, the position was 54005, and the daily position was increased by – 255. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the domestic liquefied gas market is mild, the South and North markets are mainly increased, and the weather continues to cool, and the terminal demand is still expected to improve in the later stage. In addition, the high international crude oil price also brings obvious benefits to the market. However, due to the high liquefied gas price, it is expected that the rise trend of the liquefied gas market will remain unchanged and the increase may narrow in the later stage.

The price of aluminum fluoride rose on October 11

According to the data of business agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on October 11 was 10366.67 yuan / ton, up 2.64% from 10100.00 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month; The trend of aluminum fluoride continued to rise.

Overview of industrial chain Market

According to the monitoring of business society, the prices of fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rose in October, and the cost of aluminum fluoride rose; The high price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and rose, and the demand for aluminum fluoride remained strong. The start-up level of aluminum fluoride enterprises fell, the downstream demand was strong, and the production capacity of aluminum fluoride was limited, which stimulated the rise of aluminum fluoride prices.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that: the price of aluminum fluoride raw materials fluctuates and rises, the downstream electrolytic aluminum continues to rise at a high level, the demand for aluminum fluoride is strong, and the cost rises, which stimulates the price fluctuation and rise of aluminum fluoride. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride is expected to rise in shock.

Trade name: melamine

Latest price (October 9): 17533.33 yuan / ton

On October 9, the melamine market was strong, up 0.57% compared with the previous trading day, 1.35% compared with the price on September 30 and 213.10% compared with the same period last year. At present, the upstream urea price is rising, the cost support is rising, the demand side export support is strong, the domestic trade is just needed, and the market atmosphere is OK.

It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market may be dominated by strong operation.

1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 6948.25 yuan / ton, up 3.04% from 6743.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 6805.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.05% over 6540.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha fluctuated.

On September 30, the naphtha commodity index was 85.75, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 16.44% from the highest point 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 103.01% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and rose this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 6800-7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 6700-6900 yuan / ton. In the near future, the downstream of the local refining market is mainly purchased on demand. As of the week of September 29, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.727 million barrels to a two-year low of 18.73 million barrels, Singapore’s light distillate inventory decreased by 1.029 million barrels to a seven month low of 11.847 million barrels, and Singapore’s medium distillate inventory decreased by 333000 barrels to a two-week low of 10.514 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, making the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery speed of American refineries is faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply has heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term.

Downstream: the domestic toluene market rose slightly in September, and the toluene price was 5630 / ton on September 1; On September 30, the price was 5700 yuan / ton, up 1.24% from the beginning of the month; The price of domestic mixed xylene rose in September, and the price of mixed xylene was 5730 yuan / ton on September 1; On September 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, up 2.27% from the beginning of the month; In September, the domestic PX price basically remained stable, and the price at the end of the month was 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2021, there were 15 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 12 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 75% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were steam coal (51.66%), methanol (38.15%) and dimethyl ether (33.12%). A total of one commodity fell month on month, and the product of decline was liquefied natural gas (- 7.53%). The average rise and fall this month was 16.2%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in September, supported by the cost of refining naphtha market, and a small number of businesses just need to replenish before the national day, but the terminal demand is limited and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha may be dominated by weakness in October.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide was stable and small in the month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 21066.67 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20950 yuan / ton. The price decreased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.55.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the domestic titanium dioxide market price is stable and small. The price decreased slightly in the first half of the month, and then with the price increase letters from various manufacturers, including Longbai group, anada, Daxiao, etc. On the basis of stabilizing the price, the price has increased slightly. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of rutile titanium dioxide in China is 19500-21800 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 17600-19500 yuan / ton. At present, titanium dioxide enterprises are limited by the sound of films, more parking, low market operation, and many enterprises have sent letters to raise prices. The trading market has a strong wait-and-see mentality. Traders are more cautious in taking goods and mainly purchase on demand.

According to the statistical data provided by the General Administration of customs, the export volume of titanium dioxide in China in August 2021 was 102655.52 tons, with a month on month increase of 17.39% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.35%. The average export price in August was 2937.85 US dollars / ton.

In August 2021, the import volume of titanium dioxide in China was 15124.72 tons, a month on month decrease of 13.89% and a year-on-year increase of 23.05%. The average import price in August was 3194.73 US dollars / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi continues to rise this month. Affected by environmental protection, the spot supply of titanium ore in Yunnan is relatively tight. The price of titanium ore in Yunnan rises slightly, and the market transaction is relatively good. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1650-1700 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2450 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be discussed.

According to the statistical data provided by the General Administration of customs, the export volume of China’s titanium concentrate in August 2021 was 1590 tons, a month on month decrease of 30.09% and a year-on-year increase of 25.74%. The average export price in August was US $1343.06/t.

In August 2021, the import volume of titanium concentrate in China was 262344.98 tons, with a month on month increase of 4.63% and a year-on-year increase of 17.68%. The average import price in August was USD 333.34/t.

In terms of sulfuric acid, the domestic sulfuric acid market price rose this month, and the quotation increased from 785.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 871.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, an increase of 86.67 yuan / ton, or 11.04%, a year-on-year increase of 120.68% compared with the same period last year. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, the sulfuric acid market may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that at present, the quotation of titanium dioxide market is strong and upward, and the manufacturers are willing to rise. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw material titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid increased, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide will be strong and upward in the short term, and the actual transaction price is mainly discussed.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene fell weakly in September. The price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber BR9000 was 14000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 13220 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall slight decrease of 5.57%; The price of emulsion polymerized styrene 1502 was 13050 yuan / ton at the beginning of February and 12291 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall decrease of 5.81%.

In September, the domestic market of cis-butyl and styrene butadiene rubber was slightly weak, and the ex factory price decreased by more than 1000 yuan / ton within the month. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the ex factory price of Qilu Shunding and Qilu 1502 of Sinopec North China sales company was 12900 yuan / ton and 12100 yuan / ton respectively; The market trader’s offer adjusted slightly downward.

List of commencement of butadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber in September.

CIS polybutadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Yantai Haopu 60000t / A 9.21-9.29 parking

Shandong Wanda 50000 T / A parking

Qi xiangtengda 50000 T / A 9.1-9.18 first line parking; Normal operation of the first line; 9.22 – 9.27 shutdown for maintenance; Restart the first-line operation at the end of the month

Qilu Petrochemical 70000t / A 9.1-9.15 shutdown maintenance; 9.16 gradually restart to normal operation

Sichuan Petrochemical 150000t / A High load operation

Maoming Petrochemical 100000 t / A High load operation

yanshan petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 / year parking

Huayu rubber 80000 T / A parking

Taiwan rubber Yubu 72000 / year normal operation

Dushanzi Petrochemical 30000 / year High load operation

Xinjiang Lande 50000 / year normal operation

Daqing Petrochemical 160000 / year Full load operation

Liaoning Shengyou 30000 / year parking

Jinzhou Petrochemical 30000 / year normal operation

Zhejiang ChuanHua 100000 / year normal operation

Styrene butadiene rubber enterprise Unit capacity start

Qilu Petrochemical 230000 T / A 9.1-9.13 stop for maintenance and restart gradually to normal operation

Jilin Petrochemical 140000 T / A Two line operation

Yangzi Petrochemical 100000 t / A Two line operation

Shenhua chemical 170000 T / A 9.1-9.9 normal operation, 9.9-9.29 shutdown for maintenance and restart of the first line at the end of the month

Lanzhou Petrochemical 150000t / A normal operation

Fushun Petrochemical 200000 t / A 8 ~ 10% load

Bridgestone 50000 / year Oil discharge and rubber production under normal operation

Zhejiang Weitai 100000 / year Two line operation

Hangzhou Yibang 100000 / year Two line operation

In September, the raw material butadiene fell by 30%, the price of styrene increased slightly, and the cost was mainly short of cis-butadiene and styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the price of butadiene was 6975 yuan / ton, down 33.63% from 10510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The price of styrene was 9160 yuan / ton, up 4.24% from 8787 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market was consolidated in September, and the price fluctuated within the range of 12297 ~ 13184 yuan / ton. The price is relatively low, and the impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber and styrene butadiene rubber is mainly empty.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the decline in raw material prices has dragged down Shunding and styrene butadiene rubber; However, with the impact of domestic dual control policy, chemical prices generally rise, and it is expected that cis-polybutadiene and styrene butadiene rubber may rise tentatively in the later stage.

In September, the MIBK market rose first and then stabilized, and the decline was obvious near the end of the month. As can be seen from the trend chart below, the offer of most traders has stabilized and maintained a strong state. However, by the end of September, the MIBK market negotiation in East China was 22000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction in the market has been corrected. The specific trend is as follows:

In the first ten days of September, the MIBK market mainly rose as a whole, continuing the sharp rise in August. The 15000 T / a MIBK unit of Wanhua chemical was shut down for maintenance from September 5 to 29. In terms of factories, most of them focused on the delivery of early orders, and there were few spot sales. Supported by tight supply and favorable factors, traders’ offer was strong. In the first ten days of September, the main market offer was 24000 yuan / ton.

Since mid September, the market has gradually stabilized, especially after the Mid Autumn Festival, the actual order negotiation in the market has entered the downward channel, but the offer of traders has remained firm. First, the operating rate of the industry has increased to 70%, and the tight supply situation has been alleviated; Second, under the influence of dual control, the operating rate of downstream industries has declined and the demand expectation has decreased. In addition, the market has been rising in the early stage, the acceptance of high-priced raw materials is limited, the market transaction is obviously insufficient, and the focus of the cargo holder is downward under pressure.

Situation of devices in the industry: the 15000 T / a MIBK device of Jilin Petrochemical was restarted on September 14, and 80% of it was started; The 15000 T / a MIBK unit of Wanhua chemical stopped from September 5 to 29 and is gradually restored.

From the perspective of business community, the MIBK market has entered a cooling off period. After a round of decline, the market has gradually stabilized. The goods holders report high and go low, the demand for downstream antioxidant is OK, and other downstream replenishment is general. In October, the low-level adjustment continues for a period of time after the festival. In late October, the 50000 T / a device maintenance of Li Changrong in Zhenjiang, the contract is reduced, and the market supply is reduced, If the domestic policy is eased at that time, the market may push up expectations.