1、 Price data

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha was 6948.25 yuan / ton, up 3.04% from 6743.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated.

According to the latest monitoring data of business agency, as of September 30, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic refined straight run naphtha was 6805.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.05% over 6540.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of this month, and the price of refined straight run naphtha fluctuated.

On September 30, the naphtha commodity index was 85.75, up 0.18 points from yesterday, down 16.44% from the highest point 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 103.01% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and rose this month. At present, the mainstream price of hydrogenated naphtha is about 6800-7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is about 6700-6900 yuan / ton. In the near future, the downstream of the local refining market is mainly purchased on demand. As of the week of September 29, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.727 million barrels to a two-year low of 18.73 million barrels, Singapore’s light distillate inventory decreased by 1.029 million barrels to a seven month low of 11.847 million barrels, and Singapore’s medium distillate inventory decreased by 333000 barrels to a two-week low of 10.514 million barrels.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose in September. On the one hand, after Hurricane IDA passed through, it brought the greatest destructive force to the oil and gas production in the United States in 13 years, making the recovery of oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico slow, while the recovery speed of American refineries is faster than that of crude oil. Therefore, the fear of tight supply has heated up and boosted the market. On the other hand, the inventory data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) was significantly positive. The U.S. crude oil inventory fell to the lowest level since 2018, superimposed on the increase in refinery demand, and the oil price was strongly supported in the short term.

Downstream: the domestic toluene market rose slightly in September, and the toluene price was 5630 / ton on September 1; On September 30, the price was 5700 yuan / ton, up 1.24% from the beginning of the month; The price of domestic mixed xylene rose in September, and the price of mixed xylene was 5730 yuan / ton on September 1; On September 30, the price was 5860 yuan / ton, up 2.27% from the beginning of the month; In September, the domestic PX price basically remained stable, and the price at the end of the month was 7100 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in September 2021, there were 15 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 12 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 75% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were steam coal (51.66%), methanol (38.15%) and dimethyl ether (33.12%). A total of one commodity fell month on month, and the product of decline was liquefied natural gas (- 7.53%). The average rise and fall this month was 16.2%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the international crude oil rose sharply in September, supported by the cost of refining naphtha market, and a small number of businesses just need to replenish before the national day, but the terminal demand is limited and the market wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha may be dominated by weakness in October.