In February, the domestic liquid ammonia market maintained a range shock, and the trading focus shifted slightly higher than that in January. According to the monitoring of business agency, the liquid ammonia rose by 1.35% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia was 4100-4350 yuan / ton. On the one hand, during the Winter Olympics, the supply in the North was tightened, which led to the warming of the market and the general recovery of ammonia city after the festival. In addition, after the festival, the downstream preparation also pushed up the ammonia price. After the middle of the year, due to the increase of construction in Shandong, the amount of ammonia in the North increased, and the prices in Shanxi, Hebei and other places fell. The market shock continued until the end of the month.
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On the supply side, the overall supply of this month is tight before loose. During the Winter Olympics, some factories in the north were shut down. In addition, transportation was subject to certain restrictions, which also led to a general rise in ammonia prices. The supply in the South was loose. In the middle of the month, the supply was tightened and the ammonia price rebounded due to the impact of export driven and Jiujiang parking. Generally speaking, the centralized maintenance devices in February were concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia.
On the cost side, coal continued to decline in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 1167.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was about 900 yuan / ton, down 22.91% and up 56.05% year-on-year. On the one hand, after the Spring Festival, the mine resumed production one after another, which was affected by the increase of supply. In addition, affected by the policy, the coal price decreased significantly. Lower coal prices have eased the cost pressure of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other coal chemical industries.
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From the demand side, the mainstream ex factory price of urea first rose and then fell this month: the quotation first rose from 2644.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 2700.00 yuan / ton on February 11, up 56 yuan / ton, up 2.12%, and then fell to 2662.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 1.41%, up 21.55% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. There is still a downward trend at the end of the month. From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand is wait-and-see, and industrial demand is enhanced. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer use has entered the peak season, but the national development and Reform Commission emphasizes the work of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of chemical fertilizer. The price of urea has fallen slightly recently. Affected by the rise or fall of buying, dealers are not active in taking goods, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. On the whole, urea is still weak, which has a negative impact on the ammonia Market to a certain extent.
From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since February, the range between them has narrowed slightly, and the trend of liquid ammonia is slightly stronger than that of urea.
Future forecast: the business community believes that some ammonia enterprises have maintenance or load reduction plans in March, and the re contraction of supply will be good for the ammonia Market. At the same time, in the peak farming season, the production of compound fertilizer will speed up and the purchase of raw materials will be strengthened. However, considering the decline of upstream coal due to regulation, the market mentality may be negatively affected, which will limit the rebound of ammonia price. Overall, the ammonia market may continue to improve in March.
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