The consolidation operation of the domestic MIBK market has not changed much this week, and the actual order has declined in a narrow range. The market reference offer in East China is around 13500-13800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business society, the market mixed offer in East China was 13966 yuan / ton on April 4 and 13900 yuan / ton on April 11, down 0.48% this week. On the whole, the market this week was affected by logistics and transportation, and the actual orders were limited, and the overall weakness was adjusted.

Raw material acetone market declined in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of acetone market in East China was 5650 yuan / ton on April 4 and 5600 yuan / ton on April 11, a decrease of 0.88% during the month. The decline after the festival was mainly due to the increase of shipment pressure under the influence of logistics and the pressure of cargo holders. Up to now, the offer in East China market is about 5550 yuan / ton, that in South China is 5750 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong is 5700 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

This week, Zhenjiang Li Changrong plant was restarted on the 5th, and the supply was gradually restored. There is no pressure on the inventory of other factories for the time being. From the perspective of East China, the logistics pressure is still large, the raw materials in some regions are difficult to enter and exit, the pressure of goods holders is large, the mentality is under pressure, the downstream follow-up is limited, and the negotiation is deadlocked and goes down.

From the perspective of business society, the market is still in a narrow range of shock operation. At present, MIBK enterprise inventory is low and the short-term supply pressure is not large. If the transaction price between the factory and antioxidant rises in the later stage, the market confidence will be supported. However, under the influence of logistics, the demand side is under pressure, and the pressure of terminal shipment is still large. It is expected that there will be a stalemate in the short term.

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market fluctuated upward, the overall market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then restraining, and the price was stable as a whole. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6698.25 yuan / ton on April 1 and 6858.25 yuan / ton on April 8, with an increase of 2.39% and 50.05% compared with the same period last year.

As of April 8, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, April 8th

East China, . 6450-6850 yuan / ton

North China, 6650-6900 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6700-6950 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6000-6500 yuan / ton

At the beginning of April, the domestic propane market was dominated on the whole, and the market price of propane in Shandong increased first and then decreased. At present, the positive market is limited. With the introduction of CP price in April, propylene butane rose, bringing obvious support to the domestic market. However, the international crude oil price is mainly volatile, and the benefits brought by the cost are limited. At present, there is little change in market supply and weak demand. Due to the impact of public health time in Shandong, the shipment situation has been blocked, which has brought some resistance to the rising market. At present, the trend of the northern market is stronger than that of the southern market.

Saudi Aramco announced in April 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 940 USD / T, up 45 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 960 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the introduction of CP price rise in April has brought some support to the market. The domestic propane market is still at a relatively high level compared with the same period, but the benefits brought to the market by the fluctuation of international crude oil trend are limited. In addition, the terminal demand is weak and the overall trading atmosphere of the market is limited. It is expected that the propane market may still weaken in the short term.

DBP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of DBP fluctuated and fell this week, and the overall DBP market weakened. As of April 11, the price of DBP was 10366.67 yuan / ton, down 3.27% from 10716.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week (April 4); Compared with the price of 10800.00 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month, the price of DBP decreased by 4.01%. Overall, the price of DBP fell this week, and the plasticizer market fluctuated and weakened.

In April, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and fell

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of n-butanol fell in April, and the market of n-butanol fell. On April 11, the price of n-butanol was 9366.67 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 9566.67 yuan / ton on April 1. In April, the price of n-butanol in Shandong fell, the cost of DBP fell, and the pressure of DBP price decline increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and fell in April. As of April 11, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from 8737.50 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month. In April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DBP fell, the cost support of DBP weakened, the rising power of DBP weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Future expectations

According to DBP data analysts of business agency, due to the impact of the epidemic, the start-up of plasticizer industrial chain declined, the overall supply and demand were weak, the prices of downstream n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell, the prices of raw materials fell, the cost of plasticizer DBP fell, and the price of DBP fell. Generally speaking, the supply and demand of DBP industrial chain are both weak, the cost of DBP has decreased, and the price of DBP is expected to fluctuate and fall in the future.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On April 8, the average market price in Henan was 7475 yuan / ton, down 75 yuan / ton from 7550 yuan / ton last weekend, a decrease of 0.99%, and the price increased by 2.40% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see consolidation. During the week, the quotation of main enterprises in Henan Province was temporarily stable, and the quotation of individual enterprises was slightly reduced according to their shipment. At present, the manufacturer’s production cost pressure is large, the enterprise inventory is low, the quotation is high, the downstream market is mainly purchased on demand, and the enterprise shipment is OK. Most enterprises hold a wait-and-see attitude, and the market quotation remains high. As of April 8, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8500 yuan / ton. The price will be reduced by 300 yuan / ton within the week.

The upstream soda ash market was consolidated and operated. As of April 8, the average market price was about 2616 yuan / ton, and the price rose slightly during the week. The soda ash price was mainly stable this week, the market situation was stable and small, and the downstream followed up as needed. The market trading atmosphere was acceptable, the manufacturers shipped flexibly, and the market transaction price was slightly explored.

Downstream, the aluminum market continued to decline this week. On April 7, the aluminum price was 22036.67 yuan / ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. Affected by public health events, logistics and transportation are blocked, enterprises have difficulties in shipping, weekly outbound volume is reduced, aluminum social inventory is accumulated, and the aluminum market is sorted out downward.

Future forecast

The operating rate of domestic cryolite market is low, the enterprise inventory is low, the downstream demand is stable, and the enterprise quotation is strong. Because the cost pressure still exists, it is expected that the cryolite market will continue to be high and wait-and-see consolidation, and pay specific attention to the downstream demand.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined this week. As of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8500 yuan / ton, down 2.72% from the price of 8737.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 36.82% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined recently.

This week, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride continued to fall, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the price trend of downstream DOP market fell slightly, the price trend of orthobenzene fell, the plasticizer market fell, the downstream trend fell, which was bad for the domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the market price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, and the actual transaction has little change. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8300-8400 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8500-8600 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The price trend of phthalic anhydride decreases, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride decreases slightly.

This week, the price trend of domestic orthobenzene fell, with the on-site price of 8600 yuan / ton, down 4.44% from the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The decline of domestic orthobenzene price is a bad factor in the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area fell, the external quotation of orthobenzene fell, and the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has not changed much recently. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. The price trend of orthobenzene has declined after detailed discussion on the actual list, Domestic phthalic anhydride prices fell slightly.

This week, the market price trend of DOP in the downstream of phthalic anhydride decreased. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12250 yuan / ton by the end of the week, with a price decrease of 0.41%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the supply of DOP was normal, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of DOP raw materials decreased slightly, the operation of DOP enterprises was normal, the supply of DOP was sufficient, the PVC price was temporarily stable, the downstream demand was stable, and the market transaction was general. The upward momentum of plasticizer DOP market still exists, and the downward pressure is weakened. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The DOP price is 12100-12400 yuan / ton. This week, the DOP price trend declined slightly, and the affected price of phthalic anhydride market declined slightly.

On the whole, the recent price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, but the market trend of downstream plasticizer industry is stable, coupled with the downward trend of crude oil market. Affected by this, the market situation of phthalic anhydride is favorable and the support is insufficient. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be stable in the later stage.

On April 6, the international crude oil futures market fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $96.23/barrel, down US $5.73 or 5.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $101.07/barrel, down US $5.73 or 5.6%. The minutes of the Fed meeting sent a hawk signal that the strengthening of the US dollar is expected to heat up. More importantly, major oil consuming countries said they would release a large number of crude oil reserves, and the tightening of supply is expected to ease. Oil prices remain under pressure.

Minutes of the Fed’s radical interest rate hike

On Wednesday, the minutes of the March monetary policy meeting released by the Federal Reserve showed that Fed officials had reached a consensus on the pace of reducing the balance sheet, that is, it may be appropriate to reduce the balance sheet by up to $95 billion a month, and opened the door to raising interest rates by 50 basis points. Once the news was released, the capital market generally shook and the three major stock indexes generally fell. The US dollar strengthened and risk assets such as crude oil were dragged down.

International Energy Agency (IEA) releases reserves on a large scale to ease supply pressure

The director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Wednesday that after the United States announced the 180 million barrel oil release plan last week, IEA Member States agreed to release another 60 million barrels of oil reserves in order to curb the rise of oil prices. This is the second time that the United States and IEA members will coordinate the release of oil reserves in a month, which means that more than 1 million barrels of crude oil will be put on the market every day in the next six months. The pressure on crude oil supply is expected to ease in the short term.

Where will oil prices go in the future?

The main logic of the future oil price trend is still the evolution of the situation in Russia and Ukraine. The main factor affecting oil prices is still the tightening of supply caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The sanctions imposed by European and American countries on Russia are almost full, and the market estimates may lead to a reduction of 2-3 million barrels of Russian oil exports. In early April, Europe also tried to increase sanctions against Russia. If the sanctions are further upgraded, Russia’s oil supply will further decline and the supply gap may continue to expand. Considering that the United States announced the release of 180 million barrels at the end of March, plus 60 million barrels in other Member States, with an average daily increment of 1.3 million barrels / day, it is also difficult to make up for the reduction of Russia affected by the sanctions. As long as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues, it is difficult to cancel the sanctions, and the tightening of supply trend in the future will still be good for oil prices.

In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) have always been cautious in increasing production. OPEC + increased production by only 90000 barrels / day in March. The latest meeting on March 31 was still to implement the previous gradual production increase mode and release production capacity at the rate of 432000 barrels / day. With regard to OPEC + policy, on the one hand, due to the expectation of high oil prices, the organization’s willingness to increase production has always been weak. In addition, there are some practical difficulties in increasing OPEC + production. For example, the unrest in some member countries such as Kazakhstan and Libya also increases the difficulty of increasing production. Overall, OPEC is also difficult to bring substantial benefits to the supply pattern in the future.

On the demand side, the main tone of sustained economic recovery has not changed. After the liberalization of restrictions in Europe and the United States, the traffic demand is still in a period of growth. In particular, the aviation flight volume in Europe and the United States is rapidly returning to normal, which has promoted the recovery of aviation coal demand. The operating rate of refineries in the United States also continued to rise. As of the week of March 27, the operating rate of refineries increased from 91.1% to 92.1%. Domestic demand has been suppressed to a certain extent due to the impact of public health events, but this is only a short-term impact. Globally, demand still shows an increasing trend, and the growth rate is expected to slow down. In the long run, economic recovery will bring oil price demand back to the level before the epidemic. The crude oil analyst of business agency believes that the oil price is still disturbed by the news in the short term and intensifies the shock, but the medium and long term will continue to maintain a strong market due to the positive impact of supply and demand fundamentals.

Price dynamics: on April 6, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical offered 8600 yuan / ton;

East China: the quotation of Yangzi Petrochemical is 8600 yuan / ton;

South China: Hainan Refining & Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 8600 yuan / ton;

Central China: the quotation of Wuhan ethylene is 8600 yuan / ton;

Others: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8300 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical offers 8650 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical offers 8550 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical offers 8653 yuan / ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8450 yuan / ton.

Analysis and comments: in terms of crude oil, the EU announced that it would speed up the formulation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, but the member states have not yet reached an agreement. In addition, market participants are worried about the slowing demand of public health events, and oil prices are under pressure.

During the festival, crude oil rose as a whole, and the price of pure benzene in Asia rose. Domestic pure benzene trading is general, and the price difference of pure benzene in Shandong still exists. Today, the price of domestic pure benzene is 8300-8650 yuan / ton.

Price trend in March

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, cryolite was sorted upward in March, and the price trend increased continuously. On March 31, the average market price in Henan was 7550 yuan / ton, an increase of 300 yuan / ton compared with 7250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, a decrease of 4.14% during the month and a year-on-year increase of 17.97%.

In March, the domestic cryolite market was sorted out on a wait-and-see basis. The cryolite raw materials were tight, the manufacturer’s productivity was reduced, the inventory was ok, the market supply was small, and the market situation was strong. In addition, due to the restrictions of environmental protection policies, enterprises switched from coal to natural gas. Due to the influence of the current international situation, the natural gas price was high, the enterprise cost was increased, and the market quotation was increased. As of the 31st, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 7500-8500 yuan / ton, and the lowest price was 700 yuan / ton higher than that of the previous month; The ex factory quotation in Shandong is about 7600 yuan / ton, which is the same month on month and the actual transaction price

Upstream and downstream market analysis

On the upstream side, the domestic soda ash market is waiting and finishing. On March 30, the average price of soda ash was 2587.5 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.43% compared with 2625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. During the month, the price of soda ash was stable and small, the market trading atmosphere was general, the downstream purchase was cautious, and the purchase was mainly based on demand. The decline of soda ash inventory was not obvious, and the manufacturer maintained the reduction of shipping quotation.

The downstream aluminum price first fell and then rose in March. On March 30, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China market was 22740 yuan / ton, up 0.80% from 22560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. The early stage coincided with the traditional off-season. The downstream operating rate was relatively weak and the market demand was weak. However, the domestic mainstream social inventory continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price decreased significantly. In the later stage, the downstream consumer demand gradually recovered, the operating rate of aluminum sections, aluminum plates, strips and foils rebounded, the demand for aluminum increased, and the aluminum price was sorted upward. On the whole, the supply and demand game was dominated, and the market fluctuated.

Future forecast

At present, the market situation of cryolite is mainly on the sidelines. The operating rate of enterprises is not high, there is no pressure on inventory, the market supply is tight, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected that the cryolite market will be consolidated and operated in the later stage, and the price will be stable temporarily.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite rebounded slightly in March. The average price of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 2583.33 yuan / ton on March 1 and 2700.00 yuan / ton on March 31, an increase of 4.52% in the month.

In February, the cost of upstream raw materials continued to rise. In March, domestic sodium pyrosulfite production enterprises successively increased the ex factory price slightly, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to rise slightly in early March.

In March, the price of soda ash fell slightly, the price of sulfur continued to rise, the upstream cost tended to be stable as a whole, and the overall market price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite moved forward steadily.

In March, the price of domestic soda ash fell slightly, falling by 1.43% in the month, and the price of sulfur rose sharply, rising by 41.39% in the month. The cost of raw materials remained high, which will further support the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite market in the future.

Business analysts believe that the raw material cost continues to operate at a high level, and it is expected that the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will be stable, medium and strong as a whole in April.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose in March. The price was around 1257 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1370 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 8.95% in March.

 
On the one hand, the central rural work conference held at the end of 2021 emphasized the great significance of ensuring the stable supply of primary agricultural products from the perspective of the urgency of coping with risks and challenges and the national food security strategy.

On the other hand, the teleconference on promoting the expansion of soybean oil production was held in Beijing on March 18. Hu Chunhua, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and vice premier of the State Council, attended the meeting and delivered a speech.

Affected by the two policies, since the beginning of spring in 2022, spring farming has been carried out gradually and widely, the amount of fertilizer used has increased greatly, and the operation of compound fertilizer enterprises has been increased to about 50%, forming support for ammonium chloride. Domestic ammonium chloride enterprises started 70-80% of their units, with sufficient orders to be issued and tight supply, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased; Traders rose.

In March, the price of raw liquid ammonia rose sharply, with strong cost support. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of March 30, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4953 yuan / ton, up 10.40% from 4486 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price of urea also rose sharply in March, with strong support for ammonium chloride. As of March 30, the domestic urea price was 2980 yuan / ton, up 11.44% from 2674 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month

With the sharp expansion of spring ploughing and the increase of market demand, the commencement of compound fertilizer industry rose to more than 50% in March, and the demand formed a strong support in the face of ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: the ammonium chloride analyst of business society believes that the support of ammonium chloride cost and demand will continue at present, and it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will be strong in the later stage.