According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market declined this week, and the market of the domestic rare earth industry declined slightly. On August 14, the rare earth index was 703 points, which was the same as yesterday. It was 30.19% lower than the highest point 1007 points (2022-02-24) in the cycle, and 159.41% higher than the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

This week, the product prices in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of the mainstream praseodymium neodymium system in the rare earth market declined. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, metal praseodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide declined slightly. As of the 15th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 780000 yuan / ton, and the price dropped by 2.8% this week; The price of neodymium metal was 975000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 3.94%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 785000 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 2.48%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 745000 yuan / ton, down 1.26% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 905000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.63%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.065 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 2.74%. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market is declining, the recent downstream purchase is not active, and the number of new orders is relatively small. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises is deepened, and the purchasing intention is weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises have reduced production due to the shortage of raw material inventory due to the shortage of waste supply. Most of the magnetic material enterprises are distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of new energy vehicles and electric two wheeled vehicles in the downstream is reduced, the demand for spot purchase is weak, and the market price continues to fall. There is no obvious improvement in the downstream demand side, the purchase demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has dropped sharply. The number of active offers made by the separation enterprises in the field is reduced, and the purchase is cautious. The offers of the traders are active, and some merchants intend to sell goods at a profit. In addition, the purchasing intention of the metal factory is not high. The market trend of light rare earth continues to decline.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium and praseodymium oxide has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up but not buying down, the price trend in the market continues to decline. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. According to the data released by the China Association of automobile industry, in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.502 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased significantly. In the recent period, the demand for new energy was general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price declined slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium oxide in China decreased slightly. As of the 15th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.27 million yuan / ton, with a price drop of 1.09% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.27 million yuan / ton, with a price trend of 1.52%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.02 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 1.15% this week; This week, the price trend of terbium series dropped. The domestic price of terbium oxide was 13.65 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 17.4 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths has dropped slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchases according to demand, which makes the domestic market of heavy rare earths fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in light rare earth ore use areas in Sichuan and other places has decreased. The reduction of this part of supply has little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in light rare earth ore use areas. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, the production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be mild, The downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, the export of Myanmar is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the domestic heavy rare earth market products, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market has dropped slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. In 2022, the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators meet expectations, and the industrial pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the indicators is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply indicators. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are all + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earths will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, the rock and mineral type rare earth (mainly light rare earth) is 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and the ionic type rare earth is 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increase will be concentrated on light rare earth, which will be a long-term trend. In the long term, the domestic rare earth market will still be supported.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable-frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earths, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal plants, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government introduces policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of new energy vehicles in the terminal will be boosted in the later period. Chen Ling, a business analyst, predicts that the downstream procurement is not active in the short term, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to fall. However, in the long term, the rare earth industry still has support.

The domestic methanol market fluctuated at a low level, and the transaction was general. The traders just needed to replenish, and their mood was poor. The manufacturer narrowly adjusts the external quotation, ranging from 20 to 50 yuan / ton, which has little impact on the trade market.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 8 to 15, the average price of domestic methanol market dropped from 2555 yuan / ton to 2546 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 0.33% in the cycle, a month on month increase of 3.24% and a year-on-year decrease of 1.00%.

As of the closing of August 15, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated narrowly. The opening price of ma2209 contract was 2450 yuan / ton, the highest price was 2496 yuan / ton, the lowest price was 2435 yuan / ton, and the closing price was 2462 yuan / ton, an increase of 5 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, the position of ma2209 contract was 526400 lots, a decrease of 121100 lots compared with the previous trading day.

As of August 15, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions is as follows:

Region, price

Qinghai region. No quotation at present

Shanxi Province, 2330-2350 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2600 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, 2460-2500 yuan / ton

In the two lakes region, the negotiation reference is about 2460-2560 yuan / ton

Anhui Province, 2450-2520 yuan / ton

Henan Province, 2550 yuan / ton

The price of products in the methanol industry chain fluctuated. The price of natural gas, the upstream product of methanol, was stable. The price of coal fell in a narrow range, and the support of methanol cost was weak; The price of downstream product Shandong methane chloride increased the most; Among the related products, the price of urea in Shandong dropped the most.

On the external market, as of the closing on August 12, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was 351.00-352.00 USD / T, down by 1 USD / T. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 109.50-110.50 cents / gallon, down 1 cents / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 363.25-364.25 euros / ton, up 0.25 euros / ton.

Region, country, closing price, up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 351.00-352.00 USD / T, – 1 USD / T

Europe, America, Gulf of America, 109.50-110.50 cents / gallon, – 1 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 363.25-364.25 euros / ton, 0.25 euros / ton

Crude oil is weak, supply is expected to increase, and demand changes are limited. The cost is supported or weakened, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The methanol analysts of the business association predicted that the domestic methanol market in the short term would be dominated by sluggish consolidation.

Price trend

According to the data of the business community’s bulk list, the PC market was volatile this week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of August 12, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business community was about 16900 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.91% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the ex factory price of bisphenol A enterprises increased this week, and traders followed the factory to gradually push up the operation. On the other hand, Huizhou Zhongxin plant is restarted, and Cangzhou Dahua new plant is put into production. It is expected that the supply may be increased. In addition, the cost support is limited. It is expected that the short-term increase of bisphenol A may be narrowed. It is suggested to pay attention to whether there is a breakthrough in the short-term market offer.

This week, the upstream bisphenol a market was rising, and the PC cost side support was strong. In terms of industrial load, the operating rate of domestic PC enterprises has limited changes this week, and some enterprises will rise or fall next week. The inventory position of the industry remains high, and the pressure on the supply side continues. The international crude oil at the far end and upstream continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors, resulting in the weak mid – and long-term support of PC. Downstream demand is still lagging behind. Terminal enterprises are limited in operating rate due to various factors, and have poor confidence in stock preparation. On site operations tend to bargain hunting and digest low-end offers. The merchants are willing to reduce prices and take orders. In fact, small orders are the main ones.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the domestic PC market fluctuated slightly, the upstream BPA market gradually rose, and the cost side’s support effect on PC was enhanced. On the supply side, there are abundant goods in the market, high inventory, and bargain hunting on the demand side. The buyer is cautious. It is expected that the spot price of PC will rise in the short term.

It can be seen from the trend chart of p-xylene that the price trend of this week is declining. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from the price of 9550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 23.29% year on year.

Recently, domestic paraxylene supply is normal, domestic PX operation rate is about 70%, Sinochem Hongrun petrochemical 600000t unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit operates at about 50%, The domestic supply of p-xylene is relatively normal, and the recent supply of overseas units is relatively normal. This week, the crude oil price trend is down, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is down. This week, the price of PX outside the market has dropped. As of April 4, the closing price in Asia was US $1045-1047 / T FOB Korea and US $1063-1065 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has remained low. The export of PX sources in Asia to Europe and America has increased, and the export of PX to China has decreased. However, the closing price of PX outside the market has declined, and the domestic market price of paraxylene has declined.

This week, the crude oil price trend dropped. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel. The international oil price fell to the lowest point since the end of February. With the release of the commercial crude oil inventory data by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), both crude oil and gasoline unexpectedly surged; In addition, the meeting of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) was held, and the production target was raised, and the oil price began to decline further. US crude oil inventories unexpectedly increased last week due to the decline in exports and the decline in crude oil processing capacity of US refineries. The data also showed that the gasoline inventory in the United States also increased unexpectedly last week. Due to the slowdown of demand, the distillate oil inventory decreased. On the whole, the crude oil price trend this week declined, and the domestic p-xylene market price fell due to the drop of crude oil price.

This week, the price trend of downstream PTA market dropped sharply. As of the 5th, the average price of PTA market was 5800-5900 yuan / ton. The PTA market continues to decline. In terms of its own supply, the domestic PTA industry’s operating rate has dropped to about 66.5%, and the on-site operating rate has declined. Superimposed on the PTA industry’s processing fee being reduced to a low level, the PTA market price trend has declined. This week, the start-up of downstream polyester plants declined slightly. The terminal demand was mainly based on demand. The terminal textile market was general, and the purchasing was not active. The terminal weaving load was reduced to about 51%. The factory was not willing to stock goods, and the polyester filament inventory was still high. The operating load of polyester is stable at around 77%. With the weakening of demand, the social inventory of PTA begins to accumulate, the downstream PTA price trend drops sharply, and the domestic paraxylene market price drops.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business community, believes that the current crude oil price is slightly weak. In addition, the downstream start-up of the terminal remains low, the overall demand side is poor, and the favorable factors are insufficient. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will remain temporarily stable in the later period.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 88, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 7433 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on August 1, 2022 (the reference ex factory price of propylene glycol was 7716 yuan / ton), the price decreased by 283 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.67%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week (8.1-8.5), the domestic propylene glycol market price continued the downward trend at the end of July, and the overall trend continued to run downward. At the beginning of this week, the propylene glycol market was in weak consolidation operation, with heavy market wait-and-see sentiment, cautious downstream demand, slow delivery pace of propylene glycol factories, and blocked supply and demand transmission. On August 5, some propylene glycol factories again lowered the ex factory price of propylene glycol by about 200-500 yuan / ton. As of August 5, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol was around 7200-7500 yuan / ton, and the high-end price in the field was around 7800 yuan / ton. At present, the on-site wait-and-see mood is still strong, and most transactions are mainly through negotiation.

On the upstream propylene oxide side, at the beginning of August (8.1-8.4), the overall market of propylene oxide in Shandong showed a slight increase. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of August 4, the reference price of propylene oxide was 9000 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.37% compared with August 1 (8966.67 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the downstream demand side of propylene glycol has not been greatly improved, and the overall effective support in the field is still slightly weak. The propylene glycol data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is weak and consolidation operation is the main trend. The specific trend needs to pay more attention to the basic changes in the supply and demand side and the follow-up of new orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, toluene rose first and then fell this week, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. On July 29, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 7560 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 28.79%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Crude oil fell broadly this week, and the cost side supported the decline; In addition, the domestic demand is poor, the market negotiation is light, and the price continues to weaken.

In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (August 4), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $942 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $18 / T, or 1.88%.

In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week. On July 29, the price was 15850 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 15800 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from last week and up 7.12% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell sharply this week. On July 29, the price was 9550 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from last week and up 23.29% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On July 29, the price was 8541 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 10.55% over the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.

The blending demand of downstream chemical products and gasoline of toluene is not good, and the contradiction between supply and demand of toluene increases due to the decrease of export volume of toluene and the increase of domestic sales. In addition to the unstable support of the recent cost side, there is still a possibility of downward pressure on toluene. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic sulfuric acid market price dropped sharply this week. The sulfuric acid price dropped from 682.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 556.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 18.48%, a year-on-year decrease of 26.84% compared with the same period last year. On August 7, the sulfuric acid commodity index was 86.54, which was the same as yesterday, down 53.99% from the highest point 188.07 in the cycle (2022-04-13), and up 174.56% from the lowest point 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream market rebounded at the bottom, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened

From the quotation of the manufacturer, the price of the mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers fell sharply this week, the inventory of the manufacturers was general, and the downstream demand was weakened. Heze Jiangyuan sulfuric acid quoted 460 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Zouping Tianlu sulfuric acid quoted 520 yuan / ton this weekend, which decreased by 180 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Qinghong sulfuric acid quoted 500 yuan / ton at the end of this week, down 200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Changzhou Changjiang sulphuric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton this weekend, down 250 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of Xiangcheng San’an sulfuric acid is 900 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the upstream sulfur market rebounded from the bottom. The sulfur price rose from 940.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1086.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, up 15.60%, down 34.80% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream market rebounded from the bottom, and the cost support improved. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market fell slightly, and the market price fell from 11280.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10780.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.43%, a year-on-year increase of 7.48% over the same period of last year. The downstream titanium dioxide market fell slightly. The market price fell from 18866.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 18066.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 4.24%, a year-on-year decrease of 14.91% compared with the same period of last year. The downstream market fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm weakened.

In the future, the market fluctuated slightly and fell

In the middle and early August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly. The upstream sulfur market has recently bottomed out and rebounded, with good cost support. However, the market prices of hydrofluoric acid, titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate in the downstream declined slightly, the enthusiasm of downstream customers for purchasing sulfuric acid weakened, and the product trend declined under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of business association believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

From July 29 to August 5, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China fell first and then rose. At the end of last week, it was 9062.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of this week, it was 8512.5 yuan / ton, with a weekly drop of 6.07%.

Market price of main hydrogenated benzene in China this week (unit: yuan / ton)

The market, the price on July 29, and the price on August 5, rose and fell

East China, 8900 ~ 9000, 8400 ~ 8500, – 500

Shandong Province, 8700 ～ 8750., 8200 ～ 8300., – 475

On August 4, international crude oil futures fell continuously to the lowest point since February. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $88.54/barrel, down US $2.34 or 2.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.12/barrel, down US $2.66 or 2.75%. The main reason is that at the macro level, the Bank of England announced an interest rate increase of 50 basis points on Thursday to curb the economic recession that may be triggered by inflation, which continued to be negative for oil prices. This was compounded by the sharp increase in US commercial crude oil inventories last week and the increase in production targets of Oil Producing Countries OPEC.

The recent negative market demand side has played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major global economies in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, the WTI fell by more than 4%. On Thursday, the Bank of England raised interest rates by 50 basis points, the largest increase since 1995. The world’s major central banks have frequently raised interest rates to curb inflation, and the expectation of economic recession is rampant. This is also the most important factor that puts pressure on the commodity market. Oil prices are facing unprecedented pressure. In the future, the crude oil analysts of the business association believe that the supply and demand fundamentals are intertwined. On the one hand, the supply tension has not changed, which still supports the oil price. But in the medium term, the upward inflation and economic downturn may gradually bring pressure on demand. Stagflation and recession may be bad for the stock market and commodity market, and the oil price will also be under pressure. Considering comprehensively, in the short term, the oil price will be under pressure. In the medium term, it is difficult to ease the shortage of natural gas and other energy. Especially in the fourth quarter, the demand for energy in winter is increased, and the oil price still has upward momentum, but there is little possibility of breaking the previous high.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 29, 8850, – 300

August 2, 8650, – 200

August 4, 8450, – 200

This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced three times, with a total reduction of 700 yuan / ton. As of August 5, the listed price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 150 yuan / ton and 8450 yuan / ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has dropped continuously since July.

Due to the large number of units put into production downstream of pure benzene in the early stage, the demand for pure benzene is increased, the overall supply of pure benzene is tight, the domestic trade cargo is reduced, and the high-level import of superimposed outer disk is reduced, and the East China port is kept in a state of de stocking as a whole. However, due to the continuous broad decline of crude oil and the significant drop of external pure benzene, the support of external news for pure benzene is weak, and the recent reduction of the downstream load and the increase of shutdown maintenance, the demand for pure benzene is slowing down, and the demand follow-up is poor. The pure benzene market is under pressure this week. Sinopec has lowered the ex factory price of pure benzene for three consecutive times, which once again affected the market mentality. The price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises dropped significantly this week.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell in July due to weakness

According to the data of business agency, the aluminum fluoride market fell in July, and the price of aluminum fluoride fell. As of July 28, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 10950 yuan / ton, down 1.13% from 11075 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month.

Raw material prices fluctuated and adjusted in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, fluorite prices rose slightly in July, up 0.41%; In July, the price of hydrofluoric acid fell slightly, falling by 0.09%. The raw material market fluctuated and adjusted, the cost of aluminum fluoride was relatively stable, the overall upward momentum of aluminum fluoride weakened, and the downward pressure remained.

Cryolite price adjustment in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite fluctuated and adjusted in July, and the cryolite market consolidated. As of July 28, the price of cryolite was 7650 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from 7600 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of cryolite was strongly adjusted, the demand for cryolite was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was temporarily stable.

Electrolytic aluminum prices first fell and then rose in July

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of electrolytic aluminum first fell and then rose in July, and the electrolytic aluminum market consolidated. As of July 28, the price of electrolytic aluminum was 18040 yuan / ton, down 5.38% from 19066.67 yuan / ton on July 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of electrolytic aluminum fell first and then rose. The aluminum market was consolidated, and the demand for aluminum fluoride was general.

Market overview and forecast

According to analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency, hydrofluoric acid, a raw material, fell slightly in July, fluorite prices rose, aluminum fluoride costs stabilized, and cryolite prices stopped falling and rising; The cost of aluminum fluoride is adjusted, and the demand is stable. Generally speaking, the cost is temporarily stable, and the demand is general. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will stabilize in the future.

On July 27, the hydrobenzene commodity index was 100.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.76% from the highest point 108.17 in the cycle (2022-06-15), and up 236.31% from the lowest point 29.99 on April 7, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2013-12-01 to now).

Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount

July 6, 9300, -300

July 14, 9150, -150

The ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was reduced twice in July 2022, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton. As of the press release, the implementation of Sinopec pure benzene was 9150 yuan / ton.

The crude oil market fell after the overall shock this month. As of the 27th, the international oil price rebounded overnight, WTI rose by more than 2%, and SC crude oil rose in the inner market. The main contract of SC crude oil rose by 4.05% to close at 678.5 yuan. Oil prices are still in a long and short tug of war, and the market is still worried about the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike, leading to a standoff at the $100 level; However, oil prices were supported by supply tightening concerns and the weakening US dollar. In the future, the crude oil analyst of business news agency believes that in the short term, it is difficult to alleviate the supply shortage pattern. Although the Libyan supply may rise, the supply elasticity of opec+ as a whole is still relatively limited. In the later stage, it is difficult to continue to improve production capacity. Driven by the supply shortage, the oil price may still have the upper action force in the near future. However, in the medium term, due to the weak demand caused by the global central bank’s interest rate hike, there are still many obstacles to the rise of oil prices.

In July 2022, the hydrogenated benzene market as a whole fluctuated downward, and the price fell again after a slight rebound at the end of the month. The ex factory price in North China was 9550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 9062.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 5.1%.

Domestic market price of main hydrogenated benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Market / /, price on July 1, price on July 28, up and down

East China, 9450 ~ 9500, 8950 ~ 9050, -500

Shandong, 9250 ~ 9350, 8700 ~ 8750, -450

This month, the crude oil market fluctuated widely, and the overall trend was mainly downward. It drove the market price of pure benzene to decline in the first half of the month, and the price fell again after a slight rebound in the second half of the month. In the first half of the month, affected by the broad decline of crude oil, pure benzene in the external market followed the weakness, driving the focus of negotiation in the domestic market down. Due to the general transaction in Shandong, the price difference between Shandong and other regions widened, and the overall decline in the week was limited. Near the end of the month, the shipment of pure benzene in East China was tight, and the inventory of pure benzene in the port was low as a whole, with the inventory falling by 20000 tons in the week. The port has good enthusiasm for picking up goods, and the superposition of downstream purchase demand at the end of the month is acceptable. Pure benzene rebounded slightly after falling at the end of the month. However, the market expects the supply of pure benzene to increase in August, and poor negotiations on pure benzene in the far month limit the increase. The trend of hydrogenated benzene market this month basically followed that of pure benzene market. In terms of unit start-up, the crude benzene market was boosted by tight supply this month, and the high price consolidation trend was the main trend. Affected by cost pressure, the start-up of benzene hydrogenation enterprises declined as a whole this month, and some units entered the maintenance state. It is expected that the overall supply will be tight in the future.

In the aftermarket, the business news agency believes that the current crude oil price fluctuates widely, and the guidance for pure benzene and the industrial chain is weakened. The recent rise and fall of pure benzene are mainly affected by supply and demand. The recent supply of pure benzene is tight as a whole, and the downstream demand is weak as a whole. It is expected that the recent weak and volatile trend of pure benzene market is dominated.