1、 Price trend
According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, toluene rose first and then fell this week, and the price fluctuated in a narrow range. On July 29, the price was 7640 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 7560 yuan / ton, down 1.05% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 28.79%.
| povidone Iodine |
2、 Analysis and comment
Crude oil fell broadly this week, and the cost side supported the decline; In addition, the domestic demand is poor, the market negotiation is light, and the price continues to weaken.
In terms of external market, toluene in Asia fell violently this week. On Thursday (August 4), the price of imported toluene from South Korea was US $942 / T, a year-on-year decrease of US $18 / T, or 1.88%.
In terms of crude oil, the US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased, adding to the weak economic data, the market worried about the slowdown of oil demand, and the crude oil fell broadly in the week. As of August 5, Brent price of this week has dropped by 15.09 USD / barrel or 13.72% compared with last week; WTI fell by 9.61 USD / barrel, or 9.74%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rebounded after falling this week. On July 29, the price was 15850 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 15800 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from last week and up 7.12% from the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price fell sharply this week. On July 29, the price was 9550 yuan / ton, and on Friday (August 5), the price was 9000 yuan / ton, down 5.76% from last week and up 23.29% from the same period last year.
In terms of gasoline, the price of gasoline in Shandong fell after rising this week. On July 29, the price was 8541 yuan / ton, and on August 5, the price was 8555 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 10.55% over the same period last year.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the oil market is stuck. Due to the weak economic data caused by the interest rate hikes of many countries, the pressure of crude oil decline increases. However, OPEC + has limited production capacity and oil supply is still tight. Crude oil is a long and short game, and the trend is full of uncertainty. Continue to pay attention to the impact of geopolitical situation, OPEC + decision on crude oil production, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic situation, etc. on crude oil prices.
The blending demand of downstream chemical products and gasoline of toluene is not good, and the contradiction between supply and demand of toluene increases due to the decrease of export volume of toluene and the increase of domestic sales. In addition to the unstable support of the recent cost side, there is still a possibility of downward pressure on toluene. Pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, toluene unit dynamics and downstream demand on prices.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |