Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart that the price trend of p-xylene fell in July. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9550 yuan / ton, down 4.50% from the price of 10000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 34.51% year-on-year. The PX price trend fell in July.

In July, the price of domestic paraxylene fell. On the whole, the on-site supply was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was in stable operation, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was in normal operation, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was in stable operation, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was in full load operation, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was in stable operation, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, the domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the operation of overseas units is normal. In addition, the domestic price of paraxylene has declined under the influence of crude oil. In July, the international crude oil price fell, and the PX external price fluctuated with the crude oil price. As of the 28th, the closing price was $1125-1127 / ton FOB South Korea and $1143-1145 / ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is normal, and the domestic market price of paraxylene is lower.

In July, the international crude oil price declined by 8.04%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $97.26 / barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $101.67 / barrel. According to the EIA inventory data of the United States, the node refined oil unexpectedly surged during the peak driving season. In addition, the resumption of Beixi No. 1, the easing of the European energy crisis, which brought bad news to the oil market, and the concern about the decline in demand caused by the European Central Bank’s interest rate hike, it can be seen that the long and short performance of the oil market is quite sticky. Taken together, the crude oil price trend fell sharply in July, which affected the market price of paraxylene.

In July, the downstream PTA market price declined. As of the end of the month, the average PTA market price was 6100-6200 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.78% in July. In July, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry was below 73%, and the operation was too high, so there was overhaul expectation. Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton plant was overhauled on July 2, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant was shut down in the evening of July 11, Ningbo Yisheng 2million ton plant is currently in shutdown state, Yadong Petrochemical 700000 ton plant load is 90%, and the restart time is to be determined; Baihong’s 2.5 million ton unit reduced its load to 80% and is expected to recover in one week. In July, the downstream polyester market fluctuated and fell, with a reversal at the end of the month. With the red of raw materials, the market ushered in a bottom rebound. Polyester mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 50-200 yuan / ton. However, the inventory is still at a historically high level. According to statistics, the average total inventory of polyester filament is 35.5 days, an increase of 15.4 days compared with the same period last year. At present, the startup rate of most weaving factories is at a low level, and the comprehensive startup rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions remains around 50%. The downstream PTA price decline is bad for the domestic paraxylene market, and the domestic paraxylene market price trend has fallen.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business club, believes that the current crude oil cost is weak, but the start-up of polyester manufacturers in the downstream of the terminal market is declining, and the PTA price trend is falling. It is expected that the market price trend of paraxylene may continue to decline in the later period.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan this week was stable. On July 29, the average market price in Henan was 7650 yuan / ton, which was the same as the quotation at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 0.66% over the beginning of the month.

quotations analysis

This week, the cryolite market has been operating on a wait-and-see basis. Cryolite enterprises have smooth shipments and stable quotations. Affected by the shortage of raw materials and high prices, cryolite production is under great pressure. Many manufacturers operate at low loads, cryolite inventories are tight, prices are high, downstream demand is stable, supporting the high price of cryolite, and the mentality of operators is more on a wait-and-see basis. As of July 29, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 8000 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 7200-8600 yuan / ton, with stable prices in the range.

The upstream soda ash operated weakly. As of July 29, the average market price was about 2820 yuan / ton, and the price fell slightly during the week, down 1.40% from last weekend. The downstream continued to wait-and-see mentality, and had resistance to high priced soda ash. The demand was weak. The trading atmosphere on the floor was not high. Manufacturers offered profits and negotiated goods. The market focus shifted downward, and the price of soda ash operated weakly.

On the downstream side, the aluminum market improved this week. On July 22, the aluminum price was about 18633 yuan / ton, up 4.35% during the week. During the week, the good news about real estate stimulated the price rise, but at present, the pressure to remove the inventory still exists, the market performance is still strong in supply and weak in demand, and the aluminum market is volatile and finishing.

Aftermarket forecast

The domestic cryolite market is operating on a wait-and-see basis. Due to the shortage of raw materials and high fuel costs, the manufacturer’s production costs are large, the cryolite device operates at low load, the enterprise inventory is limited, the cryolite price operates at a high level, the downstream demand is stable, and the manufacturer’s shipment is pressureless. From the perspective of supply and demand performance, the short-term cryolite market continues to operate at a high level.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the trend of domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 28, the rare earth index was 760 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 180.44% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium series, the mainstream in the rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

As can be seen from the product price trend chart, the domestic prices of neodymium metal, praseodymium metal, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide fell slightly. As of the 29th, the price of neodymium oxide in domestic rare earth was 860000 yuan / ton, which fell by 1.15% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.075 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.38%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 855000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 1.16%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 807500 yuan / ton, down 0.62% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 980000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.51%; The price of praseodymium metal was 1.155 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 2.53%. The domestic rare earth market continued to decline this week.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell slightly. Recently, the downstream procurement was not active, the number of new orders was relatively small, and the sentiment of being bought rose but not bought fell. The wait-and-see sentiment of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices continue to fall. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium has fallen sharply. The on-site separation enterprises actively offer less, purchase cautiously, the traders offer actively, some merchants intend to sell at a profit, and the metal factories have low purchase intention. The mentality is to wait and see the future market, and the market trend of light rare earths declines slightly.

The purchase orders of the downstream magnetic material industry have not improved, and rare earths are purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not buying down, the price trend on the floor has fallen sharply. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles is acceptable. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers shows that in June 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.499 million and 2.522 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 29.7% and 34.4% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 28.2% and 23.8% respectively. The automobile production and sales increased sharply. Recently, the demand in the new energy field is general, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 29th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.315 million yuan / ton, with a decrease of 0.64% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price is 2.31 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.08 million yuan / ton, which fell by 0.96% this week; This week, the price of terbium is mainly rising. The domestic price of terbium oxide is 13.9 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.6 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly. The leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline, but in the long run, the rare earth industry is still supported.