1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel price of the Business Agency, the nickel price fell slightly in February. The nickel price at the beginning of the month was yuan/ton, and the nickel price at the end of the month fell slightly to 204266.67 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 12.05% and a year-on-year increase of 13.42%.

Macroscopically, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bps at the beginning of the month, basically in line with market expectations. With the release of key economic data such as US non-agricultural data and inflation data, the market’s concern about the economic recession has been greatly reduced, and the probability of the US Federal Reserve to maintain austerity has increased. At the same time, the statements of several officials of the US Federal Reserve in February also supported the constant increase of interest rates to curb inflation, which has put some pressure on the metal sector. Domestically, the domestic economic recovery is slow and the demand for commodities is limited.

In terms of supply: due to the shortage of goods in the Philippines during the rainy season, the mine has not changed its willingness to price up under the attitude of cherishing goods. The overall import situation remained at a low level. By the end of the month, the national nickel ore inventory in ports fell 425000 wet tons to 7177000 wet tons on a month-on-month basis, with a total equivalent of 56400 gold tons.

In terms of demand: the demand for stainless steel has recovered slightly recently, but the overall operation is still weak, dragging down the transaction price of ferronickel. The profits of iron plants are gradually under pressure, and the power of downstream replenishment is insufficient. The support of iron plants for high nickel ore prices is weakened.

To sum up: under the background of the restart of overseas windows and the increase of nickel electrodeposition, the contradiction of pure nickel supply has been alleviated, while the recovery of downstream demand is less than expected, and the stainless steel inventory is at a historical high. The negative feedback is transmitted upward, which also aggravates the decline of nickel price. In addition, LME restarted nickel trading during the Asian session, and domestic manufacturers also began to solve the shortage of pure nickel delivery products, which will open up space for further decline of nickel prices in the future. In general, there are certain pressures on both the macro and fundamental aspects of nickel, of which pure nickel is more obviously under the expected pressure of supply growth, while stainless steel is expected to benefit from the domestic economic warming, and the downward space may be limited. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate slightly in March.