1、 Trend analysis
According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Agency, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of March 24, the spot nickel quotation was 182800 yuan/ton, down 1.11% from the beginning of the week and 26.07% year-on-year.
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Nickel weekly fluctuation chart
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of the Business News Agency, nickel prices have risen by 3% and fallen by 8% in the past 12 weeks, while nickel prices have declined in a weak manner recently.
Nickel industry chain
LME Nickel Inventory
On the macro level, US Treasury Secretary Yellen changed his tone and said that “we are prepared to take action to protect deposits when necessary.”. This aspect has boosted market confidence, with the three major US stock indexes closing slightly higher yesterday. Copper prices also showed a corresponding strengthening. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points and suggested that the increase was nearing its end, in line with market expectations.
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Supply: According to the latest data from the International Nickel Research Organization, although global nickel production in January decreased compared to the total in December, it still increased significantly by 22% compared to the same period last year. At the current rate, the annual production of nickel will exceed 3.2 million tons. This increase is mainly due to the continuous growth of Indonesia’s production, which has increased by more than 41% compared to the same period last year.
Demand: Due to the low nickel price, nickel sulfate production suffers from nickel electrowinning losses, and new production capacity scheduling is delayed, resulting in a slowdown in subsequent nickel electrowinning gains. The news of production cuts and shutdowns in stainless steel mills is frequent, and a large steel factory in North China has also released news of production cuts, leaving consumption light and unchanged.
In summary, the overall fundamentals of nickel are weak. On the macro level, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes and attitude boots have fallen, the US index has fallen, and the macro pressure has eased slightly. Although nickel prices have stopped falling, they have been unable to rebound. It is expected that nickel prices will remain low and volatile in the short term.
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