1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk list data of the Business Agency, the price of bromine was weak this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 30500 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the week was 28100 yuan/ton. The price fell 7.87%, down 49.97% year on year. The bromine commodity index on March 9 was 98.95, down 2.1 points from yesterday, down 59.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and up 67.94% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the bromine price continued to be weak. The price of bromine in Shandong is under pressure, and the downstream flame retardants and intermediates industries have not significantly increased in recent years. The demand is obviously bleak, and the shipments of bromine enterprises are not smooth. The production of bromine is sufficient, and the operators are pessimistic. The bromine and downstream flame retardant manufacturers intend to stabilize the price, but because of the high inventory, they still make more profits to ship.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur price was consolidated this week, with the average market price of 1163.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1223.33 yuan/ton at the end of the week, up 0.58% and 5.16% year on year. At present, the shipment of sulfur refinery is stable, and the operators have a good mentality. Affected by the mentality of buying up and not buying down, it is expected that the sulfur market will continue to rise. Pay attention to the follow-up of the downstream.

According to the analysts of the Business News Agency, the price of bromine is weak in the near future. Although the price of sulfur in the upstream has risen, the demand of the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industry of bromine has followed up relatively slowly in the near future. The supply and demand of bromine is sufficient, and there is no good support. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price is weak, and the operation market is consolidated, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend was stable this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4380 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price of 4380 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 1.86%.

This week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend is stable, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers operate stably, the supply of goods on the site is normal in the near future, the situation of goods on the site is normal, the manufacturer’s inventory is not high, and the price of liquid ammonia upstream of the terminal drops slightly. In addition, the price of nitric acid drops, and the price of ammonium nitrate is stable temporarily. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the demand for downstream nitro-compound fertilizer is normal, and the demand for domestic downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have not started high, and the price of ammonium nitrate is still stable in the near future. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 5300-5400 yuan/ton, the mainstream of negotiation in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan/ton, and the price in Hebei is 4600-4700 yuan/ton.

This week, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China declined. As of the 13th, the average price of nitric acid in China was 2450 yuan/ton, down 1.34% from the price of 2483.33 yuan/ton on the 6th. Recently, the domestic nitric acid plant has been operating stably, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, and the goods in the field are in good condition. Recently, the price of nitric acid in the field has declined, and the price of raw material nitric acid has declined, which is bad for the ammonium nitrate market. The market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia fell this week. As of the 13th, the price of liquid ammonia was 4323.33 yuan/ton, down 2.26% from the price of 4423.33 yuan/ton on the 6th. The prices of main production areas such as Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui and Lianghu have declined slightly. Recently, many units have been restarted, and the amount of ammonia released has increased. The increase in supply has driven manufacturers to reduce the factory price. The price of large factories in Shandong has been reduced by about 100 yuan/ton. The decline of upstream liquid ammonia price has a certain negative impact on the ammonium nitrate market, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

Recently, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry has weakened, the market price of liquid ammonia has declined, the price of nitric acid has declined slightly, and the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is normal. The ammonium nitrate analyst of the business association believes that the market price of ammonium nitrate may fall slightly in the future.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price was stronger this week. On March 10, the average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2416.67 yuan/ton, up 0.69% from the average price of 2400.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, down 9.94% from the same period last year.

In March, the domestic soda price remained stable as a whole, the sulfur price rose sharply, and the raw material cost rose slightly. Supported by this, the manufacturer slightly increased the ex-factory price of sodium metabisulfite, driving the ex-factory price of domestic sodium metabisulfite to rise slightly. This week, the market price range of domestic industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2400-2600 yuan/ton, and the overall inventory of enterprises was low, mainly to complete the orders of old customers.

As of March 10, the overall price of domestic soda ash remained stable, and the price of sulfur rose sharply, rising by 8.58% in the month. The continued rise in the price of raw materials will further support the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be strong in the short term under the support of cost and demand.

In February, the domestic adipic acid market continued to decline. According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the monthly decline of adipic acid was 5.48%, and the focus of market trading dropped significantly. At present, the market quotation range of adipic acid is 10200-10300 yuan/ton, about 500-700 yuan lower than the beginning of the previous month. The main reason is the increase in supply and the relatively low demand

Industrial chain

The figure above shows that the adipic acid industry chain is weak as a whole this month. The upstream pure benzene has maintained a fluctuating range, with a slight decline, while cyclohexanone has dropped by 1.56%. Downstream demand is sluggish, and the product trend has not changed significantly. PA66 remained in a relatively weak range.

Supply side: device restart supply increase

In terms of market supply, the overall operating rate of adipic acid continued to rise this month, and by the end of the month, the market had recovered from 50% at the beginning of the month to 6.5%. The main focus is the restart of Haile Shandong and Jiangsu units in the middle of the month; After the completion of single line maintenance of Taihua and Shenma, both lines have been put into operation, the supply has increased significantly this month, and the supply is expected to increase the negative market in the future.

Demand side: weak demand support

The rigid demand of adipic acid downstream is maintained, and the market buying is weak. It mainly focuses on digesting the inventory in the early stage. The inventory accumulation of enterprises puts the de-stocking on the agenda again. Downstream factories are cautious in picking up goods, and need to supplement orders sporadically to ensure normal startup demand. Take PA66 as an example. According to the monitoring of the business agency, PA66 rose and fell by 0% this month, and the market bottom lingered. At the end of the month, the market price of PA66 in Zhejiang was around 21000 yuan/ton. In addition, other sectors also performed poorly, with caprolactam mainly falling, TPU weak adjustment, and the game between supply and demand intensified.

Cost side: performance of pure benzene and cyclohexanone is weak

The high level of pure benzene fell after the festival, and the market did not go out of the obvious trend. According to the monitoring of Business News Agency, pure benzene fell by 0.14% this month. The main reason is that domestic inventories and imports are sufficient, and the market is difficult to perform well under the pressure of supply. Near the weekend, the price of pure benzene in East China is in the range of 7000-7050 yuan/ton. The price of cyclohexanone fell significantly, falling continuously for the past two months, with a decline of 1.56% this month. The cost side was negative.

Future prospects

According to the business association, the cost of crude oil is difficult to have a good expectation in the near future. It is expected that pure benzene and cyclohexanone will be suppressed by supply, and the cost of crude oil will be difficult to form a large positive. In addition, the supply side is also negative. Many units have been restarted this month, and there is still room for improvement in the late supply of adipic acid. The expected increase in supply is the biggest factor restricting the price. The demand side mainly follows up slowly, but it is difficult to digest the supply increment, and the market is expected to accumulate stocks. In comprehensive consideration, the price of adipic acid may still have downward space.

According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, as of March 3, 2023, the reference market price of domestic industrial propylene glycol was 9566 yuan/ton. Compared with February 27 (the reference price of propylene glycol was 9433 yuan/ton), the price increased by 133 yuan/ton, or 1.41%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that this week (2.27-3.03), the overall domestic propylene glycol market rose slightly and then stabilized. At the beginning of this week, the domestic propylene glycol market as a whole rose slightly again, and the propylene glycol price of some factories with low prices in the early stage rose slightly, with an increase of about 200 yuan/ton. The quotations of other factories and suppliers were mainly stable, and the market as a whole entered a high consolidation stage. As the market price of propylene glycol continues to rise, downstream users are increasingly in a wait-and-see mood. They are cautious in purchasing and mainly deal with small orders. As of March 3, the domestic market price of propylene glycol is around 9500-9700 yuan/ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the support for the high level movement of the propylene glycol market is mostly from the tight supply and inventory and the rising raw material market. The support provided by the downstream demand side of propylene glycol is relatively general. However, it is heard that some devices are planned to be shut down for maintenance in March. The overall increase in the on-site supply is not large, and the supply side support is still in the short term. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly be in consolidation and operation, with limited power for the sharp rise of the market, which is supported by the supply side, The probability of a sharp decline in the propylene glycol market is also small, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in information on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of the business agency, the price of aniline was relatively stable this month. The market price of aniline was 12100 yuan/ton on February 27 and 12100 yuan/ton on March 3, which was stable compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: the basic level of pure benzene continues to be weak, the downstream is more wait-and-see, and the purchase intention is general; Crude oil continued to fall in the week, and the cost of pure benzene market formed a negative pressure; Downstream styrene slightly strengthened, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of pure benzene in the East China port decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Thursday (March 2), the price of pure benzene was 7150 yuan/ton, up 1.43% from last week and 1.46% from the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of domestic nitric acid was stable this week. The price was 2600 yuan/ton on February 27 and 2600 yuan/ton on February 3. The price was flat last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tight spot supply of aniline in the northern region, the market was bullish, and the price rose continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, and the demand for aniline is difficult to be significantly improved. With the favorable supply turning weak, aniline stabilizes and the wait-and-see increases.

3、 Aftermarket expectation

At present, the supply and demand side of the aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that the aniline market may be stable in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline plants and the downstream pickup sentiment.

Domestic sodium pyrosulfite price trend chart

According to the monitoring of the Business News Agency, the domestic sodium metabisulfite price continued to be strong in February. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite was 2350.00 yuan/ton on February 1 and 2400.00 yuan/ton on the weekend, up 2.13% in the month.

In February, supported by the fact that the enterprises did not fully resume production, the relatively low inventory of sodium metabisulfite and the slight rise in the cost price of upstream raw materials, some enterprises raised the factory price slightly, driving the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite to rise slightly.

In late February, the price of upstream raw materials rose and fell, the cost of raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the domestic market price of pyrosulfite remained stable.

In February, the price of domestic soda ash rose 2.44%, and the price of sulfur fell 4.56%. The overall price of upstream raw materials rose and fell. The overall price of pyrosulfite in the future market continued to rise with insufficient momentum.

Aftermarket forecast

Analysts from the Business News Agency believe that the cost of upstream raw materials fluctuated slightly, and the wait-and-see attitude of downstream trading entities increased. In the short term, the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to rise with limited space. It is expected that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to fluctuate slightly at the current level in March.

According to the data monitored by the Business News Agency, as of February 28, the price of lithium iron phosphate, a high-quality power product, was 145000 yuan/ton. In February, the lithium iron phosphate market declined in a narrow range. The overall decline in February was 2.97%. The mainstream price range was around 145000 yuan/ton. It was mainly for contract customers, and new orders were not received.

In February, lithium iron phosphate went down in a narrow range, with a weak trend. The price at the beginning of the month was 151000 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 145000 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price is 145000 yuan/ton. The downstream just needs to purchase, and it will maintain stable operation in the short term. The manufacturer’s supply is only for old customers, and new customers do not receive orders.

Chemical commodity index: On February 27, the chemical index was 917 points, up 2 points from yesterday, down 34.50% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 53.34% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

Analyst of LiFePO4 from the Business Club believes that the market of LiFePO4 will operate stably in the short term and the price fluctuation will be limited.