According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market fell first and then rose in June, with a slight overall increase. At the beginning of June, the average market price was 6460 yuan/ton. On June 29th, the average price was 6513 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of 0.43%, a decrease of 15.96% compared to the same period last year.

As of June 29th, the mainstream prices of propylene in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ June 29th

Shandong region/ 6400-6450 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5950-6050 yuan/ton

East China/ 6150-6200 yuan/ton

In early June, the propylene market fluctuated and fell. Downstream buying was poor, and the price of propylene gradually fell to a low point. Downstream bargains entered the market, and the effect of enterprise destocking was significant. In late June, with the decline of propylene prices and a widening price gap with downstream PP, there is profit potential in the downstream, and procurement is relatively active. At the same time, some propylene enterprises have undergone temporary maintenance, resulting in a temporary decrease in market supply and a push up model for propylene. At the end of the month, the trading center of propylene showed a downward trend. On the 29th, the price of propylene in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton, with mainstream quotations ranging from 6400 to 6450 yuan/ton.

Cost side: In June, upstream products of propylene showed mixed ups and downs, with propane and liquefied gas experiencing significant declines, crude oil fluctuating downward, and bearish costs and news dragged down the propylene market. On the demand side: downstream derivatives of propylene have seen more declines and less gains, while the main downstream polypropylene is generally weak. Other downstream products have performed average, and the demand side remains strong.

Propylene analysts from the Chemical Branch of the Business Society believe that the current propylene market has controllable inventory and limited demand changes, and it is expected to maintain a narrow consolidation operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in June. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the month was 898 yuan/ton, and the average price of Shandong market at the end of the month was about 792 yuan/ton. The overall price fell by 11.8%, and the price fell by 35.71% compared with the same period last year. On June 29, the caustic soda commodity index was 113.96, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.07% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 75.03% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak, with a mainstream market quotation of around 710-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is not warm or hot, with a wait-and-see approach. The price of caustic soda in Hebei region has been consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 720-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The market trading atmosphere is generally average, and it is expected that the trend of weak consolidation will be the main trend in the later stage.

The overall supply of liquid alkali this month is sufficient, and there is currently no positive support in terms of supply. Although there will be enterprise maintenance in the later stage, downstream procurement is still in the general market, with high inventory levels. The performance of downstream aluminum oxide is relatively weak, with weak and stable aluminum oxide prices operating in the market. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for picking up goods is average, and most purchases are based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall price of caustic soda is weak. The price of liquid alkali shows signs of weakness, and the trading enthusiasm is relatively average.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and supply side caustic soda enterprises still maintain high inventory. There is no positive support for exports, and downstream alumina also lacks positive support. The supply and demand game continues to be sluggish overall, and it is expected that it will continue to operate in a weak consolidation period in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.