1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda decreased in June. The average price of Shandong market at the beginning of the month was 898 yuan/ton, and the average price of Shandong market at the end of the month was about 792 yuan/ton. The overall price fell by 11.8%, and the price fell by 35.71% compared with the same period last year. On June 29, the caustic soda commodity index was 113.96, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 57.07% from the cycle’s highest point of 265.47 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 75.03% from the lowest point of 65.11 points on October 9, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

According to survey data from Business Society, the overall price of caustic soda has declined this month. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is weak, with a mainstream market quotation of around 710-800 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The market trading atmosphere is average, and downstream demand is not warm or hot, with a wait-and-see approach. The price of caustic soda in Hebei region has been consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 720-900 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The market trading atmosphere is generally average, and it is expected that the trend of weak consolidation will be the main trend in the later stage.

The overall supply of liquid alkali this month is sufficient, and there is currently no positive support in terms of supply. Although there will be enterprise maintenance in the later stage, downstream procurement is still in the general market, with high inventory levels. The performance of downstream aluminum oxide is relatively weak, with weak and stable aluminum oxide prices operating in the market. In terms of demand, the enthusiasm for picking up goods is average, and most purchases are based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the overall price of caustic soda is weak. The price of liquid alkali shows signs of weakness, and the trading enthusiasm is relatively average.

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 25th week of 2023 (6.19-6.23), there were 0 products that rose or fell in the chlor alkali industry price list, 2 products that fell, and 5 products that rose or fell to 0. The main commodities falling include caustic soda (-1.92%) and flake soda (-0.40%). This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.33%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been weak, and supply side caustic soda enterprises still maintain high inventory. There is no positive support for exports, and downstream alumina also lacks positive support. The supply and demand game continues to be sluggish overall, and it is expected that it will continue to operate in a weak consolidation period in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.