According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have fluctuated and decreased after the holiday. On October 22, the rare earth index was 520 points, which was unchanged from yesterday and decreased by 48.36% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and increased by 91.88% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy have slightly declined, while the prices of praseodymium oxide and metal praseodymium have temporarily stabilized. As of the 23rd, the price of metal praseodymium neodymium was 642500 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 1.53% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 522500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.48% this week; The price of neodymium oxide is 530000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 0.93%; The price of neodymium metal was 667500 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 1.11% this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 680000 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 532500 yuan/ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable this week.

This week, the light rare earth market has slightly declined. Recently, downstream magnetic material manufacturers have come to an end in stocking, and they are not actively purchasing rare earth products. In addition, waste separation enterprises have sufficient inventory, and although the situation of metal praseodymium neodymium price inversion has improved, the transaction situation is not good, and the domestic rare earth market prices have slightly decreased. Although some traders have driven an increase in market activity, and upstream companies have offered relatively firm prices, terminal demand has fallen short of expectations, and the overall light rare earth market is relatively weak.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 879000 and 904000 units respectively in September, with year-on-year growth of 16.1% and 27.7%, and a market share of 31.6%. From January to September, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 6.313 million and 6.278 million units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.7% and 37.5%, and a market share of 29.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, coupled with the opening of the Golden Nine Silver Ten Year Plan, the demand for new energy has increased, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices. The trend of the light rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, the export volume of rare earths in September was 3935.2 tons, and the cumulative total export volume of rare earths in China from January to September was 40371.8 tons, a year-on-year increase of 6.6%. The export volume of rare earths in China has increased, which to some extent supports the prices of the rare earths market. The light rare earths market has not changed much.

Future forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises has been sluggish, and the increase in new orders is limited. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will remain stable in the short term; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.