441 # Overview of Silicon Price Trends
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This week, the price of metal silicon # 441 remained stable and strong. As of December 18th, the average price of metal silicon in the domestic market was 15280 yuan/ton, with a month on week increase of 0.46%. The supply side disturbance remains, and environmental inspections in the north have affected some of the supply, resulting in relatively strong quotes in the north. Seasonal production cuts in the southwest continue, and most silicon factories are reluctant to sell due to price hikes. In terms of futures, SI2402 rose or fell by -0.47% throughout the week, closing at 13810 yuan/ton.
The price of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 18th is as follows:
The price range for # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15300 yuan/ton, with an average of 15200 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.
The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
In terms of supply:
As of December 14th, there were 364 silicon metal furnaces in operation in China, with an overall start-up rate of 48.53%, a decrease of 11 furnaces compared to the previous period. Among them, there is a decrease of 1 unit in Xinjiang, 5 units in Yunnan, and 6 units in Sichuan. This week, the number of silicon metal furnaces continued to decline, the operating rate in the southwest region continued to decline, and the northern environmental protection inspection shut down for insulation.
In terms of inventory:
As of December 15th, the national social inventory of industrial silicon reached a total of 370000 tons, a decrease of 4000 tons compared to the previous week. Among them, the social ordinary warehouse was 125000 tons, a decrease of 1000 tons compared to the previous week, and the social delivery warehouse was 245000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts), a decrease of 3000 tons compared to the previous week.
In terms of demand:
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This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market was weak and stable, with the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials, currently classified as primary solar grade, falling to 55-65000 yuan/ton. The newly added production capacity of polycrystalline silicon continues to increase. Due to the weak market situation, the acceptance of high prices for metal silicon powder is low, and the trading volume is lower than the planned purchase volume.
The domestic organic silicon DMC market continues to decline weakly, with market prices ranging from 13900 to 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand transmission rhythm of the silicon DMC market is slow, and the enthusiasm of individual factories to start production is reduced, maintaining on-demand demand for metallic silicon.
The price of aluminum alloy has slightly decreased, and the current quotation for aluminum alloy ADC12 is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of aluminum alloy enterprises has slightly decreased, and procurement is not active.
Future Market Forecast
The demand for metallic silicon remains relatively stable, but the weekly production has decreased, and social inventory has maintained a slight destocking state. Silicon factories have a clear mentality of rising prices. Combined with rising costs, the prices of silicon coal and charcoal have recently risen, and electricity prices have risen during dry periods. Some silicon factories in the southwest still have production reduction plans, and it is expected that the short-term silicon price will mainly slightly increase.
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