According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of May 15, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8033 yuan/ton. Compared with May 1 (reference price of n-butanol was 7833 yuan/ton), the price increased by 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.55%.

From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, it can be seen that in early May, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed an overall upward trend. After the holiday, the focus of negotiations in the n-butanol market has continued to rise. As of May 15th, the domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province is based on around 8000-8100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of factors supporting the rise of n-butanol market

In terms of supply: In the first ten days, the overall supply inventory in the n-butanol factory was low, and the pressure on the supply side of the n-butanol factory was relatively small. The supply side supported the gradual increase of the n-butanol market price.

In terms of demand: The atmosphere of transactions in the n-butanol market is good, the atmosphere of downstream inquiries is mild, and downstream users are mostly in urgent need of procurement and small-scale stocking. The overall market demand transmission is smooth, and the demand side provides support for the n-butanol market.

Market price situation of n-butanol

Region/ Product/ May 15th

Shandong region/ N-butanol/ 8000-8100

North China region/ N-butanol/ 8050-8150

South China region/ N-butanol/ 8300-8400

East China region/ N-butanol/ 8250-8350

Upstream aspect: In early May, the upstream raw material propylene market showed an overall upward trend, and the high raw material end also provided cost support for n-butanol. On May 14th, the reference price for propylene was 6898.60 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.44% compared to May 1st (6800.60 yuan/ton).

Future analysis

At present, the atmosphere in the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong region is mild, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiries is still good. The n-butanol industry has a good mentality, and the n-butanol data analyst from the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly operate steadily with a strong bias. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic market for imported potassium chloride slightly declined in early May, with prices falling within 50 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. As of the end of this week, potassium chloride was quoted at 2516 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first half of the year, the domestic potassium chloride market continued its previous consolidation trend, with little fluctuation. In terms of imports, the price of 60% potassium chloride is mostly between 2200-2500 yuan/ton. Due to the low arrival volume from April to May, the domestic market has shown a basic balance between supply and demand, and there has been no surplus situation in the market. The price still remains rigid and strong. However, downstream factories generally have a resistance towards high prices, and the peak season for spring farming procurement is gradually coming to an end. Most enterprises have already replenished their inventory in the early stage, and the demand for compound fertilizer manufacturers is decreasing.

From the downstream market of potassium chloride, the performance of the downstream potassium fertilizer market is average, with price fluctuations varying and not significant. In the first half of the month, the market price of potassium carbonate slightly increased, rising from 6950 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7050 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.4%. The potassium nitrate market has slightly declined, with a decrease of 0.25%. The price has dropped from 4962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 4950 yuan/ton at the end of this week. Overall, the downstream market for potassium chloride is sluggish, which may pose a constraint on potassium chloride in the later stage.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In mid to late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may continue to be weak. The prices of potassium chloride in salt lakes and Zangge are temporarily stable. The downstream market of potassium chloride has temporarily remained sluggish, but with the weakening of agricultural demand in Northeast China and the weakening of potassium fertilizer demand, potassium chloride procurement may show a downward trend, and compound fertilizer factories mainly produce nitrogen fertilizer. Therefore, the price of potassium chloride may fall weakly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced this week. The average price of industrial grade sodium metabisulfite at the beginning of the week was 2166.67 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 2166.67 yuan/ton, indicating an overall stable and advanced trend.

Supported by a slight rebound in domestic soda ash prices in late April, some enterprises have slightly increased the factory price of sodium metabisulfite in May, driving a slight rebound in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite. This week, the overall market price of sodium metabisulfite remained stable and advanced. The domestic industrial grade sodium metabisulfite market price range is 2100-2200 yuan/ton, with most prices concentrated around 2100 yuan/ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the overall supply and demand of sodium metabisulfite market is stable, with the enterprise mainly completing orders from old customers. (The above prices refer to the quotations from mainstream domestic enterprises, and some enterprises that have not been reported are not within their scope. The prices are for reference only and are not related to the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact each manufacturer for consultation.).

As of May 10th, the domestic soda ash price has risen by 2.96% within the month, and the overall sulfur price has remained stable and moving forward. The overall trend of raw material costs continuing to rise will provide certain support for the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price in the future.

Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Business Society believe that the cost of raw materials continues to rise, and there is still some room for recovery in the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite in the short term.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton. On May 1st, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 36166 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8758 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% compared to last week. The transaction of pure benzene is still acceptable, and there is sufficient supply on the market. Pure benzene may continue to rise in the short term.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1876 yuan/ton, and on May 2nd, it was 1856 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to last week. At present, the market atmosphere is active, and downstream demand continues to improve.

Overall, the cost side has shown strong performance, with improved demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products in downstream markets. The market has been affected by many positive factors and is operating strongly. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will show a strong trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of aniline rose first and then fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the price began to rise, and in the middle of the month, the price was relatively stable. After mid to late October, the price decreased slightly, and at the end of the month, the price slightly increased. On April 1st, the market price of aniline was 11655 yuan/ton; On April 30th, the price was 12300 yuan/ton, and the average price of aniline this month increased by 5.53% compared to the beginning of the month and 4.45% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

In terms of raw materials, the overall pure benzene market has been on the rise this month, and prices will remain stable in the later period. 1、 Crude oil has seen a broad decline, but the cost side is insufficient. 2、 The arbitrage window of Asia US has closed, and the domestic price of pure benzene in China is low, resulting in a low import volume of pure benzene in March. And the overall supply of pure benzene in the market is insufficient. 3、 The downstream profitability is poor, and the price of styrene is in an upward trend, with a 2.53% increase compared to the beginning of the month. At the beginning of the month, the price of pure benzene was 8488 yuan/ton; At the end of the month, the price was 8748 yuan/ton, with a 3.06% increase compared to the beginning of the month and a 17.69% increase compared to the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The price of nitric acid decreased first and then increased this month, with a slight decrease at the beginning of the month and an increase in price after mid month. At the beginning of the month, the price of nitric acid in East China was 1750 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, it was 1853 yuan/ton. The price increased by 5.88% compared to the beginning of the month and decreased by 24.36% compared to the same period last year.

In April this year, the price of aniline increased slightly, with a slight increase before mid month and a slight decrease after mid month. The price has rebounded towards the end of the month. 3、 Future Market Forecast

Yesterday, East China spot traders actively offered discounts to sell and sought repayment, causing prices to plummet. Downstream pre holiday stocking was basically completed, and they bought pure benzene for the past month on dips. Low end transactions in the past month were still acceptable. Shandong refineries actively pre-sale mid season production, resulting in a decline in their offer. Some businesses are bullish on the mid – and post holiday markets, actively taking bottom positions, and overall trading volume in Shandong has increased.

Pure benzene: Yesterday, East China spot traders actively offered discounts to sell and sought payment, causing prices to plummet. Downstream pre holiday stocking was basically completed, and buying pure benzene for the past month was on dips. Low end transactions in the past month were still acceptable. Shandong refineries actively pre-sale mid season production, resulting in a decline in their offer. Some businesses are bullish on the mid – and post holiday markets, actively taking bottom positions, and overall trading volume in Shandong has increased. The external market and crude oil have fallen, and pre holiday stocking has been basically completed. It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate today.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market prices rose significantly in April. On April 29th, the rare earth index was 403 points, an increase of 34 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 59.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 48.71% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have significantly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 405000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.5%; The price of neodymium metal is 520000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.04%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 407500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.99%; The price of praseodymium metal is 537500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.40%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 505000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.43%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 402500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.38%.

The domestic heavy rare earth market prices have significantly increased, with dysprosium oxide prices reaching 2.025 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a price increase of 10.96%; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.625 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.15%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.73%; The price of metallic terbium is 8.2 million yuan/ton, and the price of oxidized terbium is 6.775 million yuan/ton, with prices of all products rising.

In April, the price trend of the domestic rare earth market increased significantly, and downstream enterprise inventories were depleted. The procurement of rare earth products increased in April, and the domestic rare earth market transactions were good. Inquiries improved, and there was little change in the operating rates of separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi, resulting in low rare earth production; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in rare earth prices. Recently, the import of some rare earth raw materials has decreased, and the supply of rare earth products is slightly tight. Positive factors have affected the trend of the rare earth market.

According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the rare earth market has slightly risen.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose and fell in April. On April 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 7410 yuan/ton, and on April 30th, the benchmark price was 7610 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.70%. The highest point in the cycle was 7770 yuan/ton. The international crude oil price fluctuates at a high level, and the cost of toluene continues to support; Downstream demand for disproportionation and blending is lower than expected, with weak support for toluene demand; The high level of port inventory has a bearish impact on the toluene market.

High international crude oil and external market prices provide support for toluene

The international crude oil price range fluctuated in April, providing continued cost support for toluene. As of April 29th, WTI06 contract settlement is $82.63 per barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $87.20 per barrel. Affected by the high volatility of crude oil prices, Asian toluene prices remained at a high level in April, providing support for the domestic toluene market. As of April 29th and May, CFR China’s toluene prices were between $935-937 per ton.

The production of xylene has significantly decreased, and the support for toluene demand has weakened

In April, domestic PX production declined and the market remained stable. In mid to early April, some devices were shut down for maintenance, and PX production decreased from 8.4% to around 6.9%; In mid to late April, some maintenance equipment restarted, and the domestic PX production slightly increased to around 7.1%. It is understood that the 800000 ton/year PX unit of Zhenhai Refining and Chemical will be shut down for maintenance starting from April 4th; The 2.6 million ton/year PX unit of Guangdong Petrochemical was put into operation at reduced load on April 10th; Three sets of PX devices at Zhejiang Petrochemical were reduced in load, and one set of PX was repaired at the end of March; The 1 million ton/year PX plant of Urumqi Petrochemical was shut down for maintenance on April 14th; The Henry Petrochemical 2.5 million ton/year PX unit was shut down for maintenance on April 16th.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed blending demand and weak support for toluene

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for toluene mixed blending is weak. As of the end of April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 6.9.

TDI demand is weak, and starting production maintains a low level, which weakens support for toluene

The TDI market weakened and declined in April. Downstream demand performance is weak, downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, and a small amount of follow-up is mainly based on demand. The end market consumption is insufficient, and downstream supply of goods with high prices is flat. Under the leadership of demand, the TDI price trend has decreased.

The impact of port inventory pressure on toluene is relatively empty

The inventory of domestic toluene ports has decreased, and the overall resistance to the upward movement of toluene has decreased. As of April 25th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 71000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 5000 tons, a decrease of around 4000 tons from the end of March.

Expected decrease in toluene supply due to planned maintenance of equipment in the later stage

The Jin’ao Technology reforming unit was shut down for maintenance in April, and toluene was sold without quantity; Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. In the later stage, there are still maintenance plans for toluene mixed xylene units such as Zhenhai Refining, Zhenghe Petrochemical, Dushanzi Petrochemical, and Dalian Xitai in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in toluene supply in the later stage provides some support for the tMarket forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, from a fundamental perspective, international crude oil is currently fluctuating and consolidating, with narrow fluctuations in toluene costs; Secondly, the demand for downstream oil adjustment and disproportionation reaction is lower than expected; The maintenance plan for the toluene unit in the later stage will to some extent alleviate the pressure on the toluene supply surface. It is expected that the toluene market will stabilize and rebound after a slight decline in the later stage.

Zinc prices surged in April, reaching a new high for the year

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the zinc price was 23378 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 12.22% compared to the zinc price of 20832 yuan/ton on April 1st. Zinc prices surged in April, reaching a new high for the year. On April 29th, the zinc commodity index was 129.93, an increase of 6.42% from the lowest point of 122.09 points in the year. The average zinc commodity index for the year was 120.31, and the overall zinc price in April was in a super high state within a year.

In March, zinc prices slightly increased, while in April, zinc prices continued to rise, with a significant increase reaching the largest monthly increase of the year. Macro positive, zinc prices surged in April, reaching a new high for the year.

On April 30th, zinc prices surged year-on-year, reaching a new high for the year

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, zinc prices fluctuated and fell in 2023, and fluctuated and fell in January and February 2024. Starting from March, they fluctuated and rose, and continued to rise significantly in April. Since April 11, 2024, zinc prices have increased year-on-year compared to April 11, 2023. The average zinc price in April was at a high level for the year, and on April 30, the annual zinc price increased significantly by 9.38% year-on-year.

China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

In April, the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), Non Manufacturing Business Activity Index, and Comprehensive PMI Output Index were 50.4%, 51.2%, and 51.7%, respectively. The three major indices continued to remain in the expansion range, and the manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion range for two consecutive months. The manufacturing industry continued to recover and develop, and the overall level of China’s economic prosperity continued to expand. This is the first time in a year that PMI has expanded its range for two consecutive months. Enterprise production continues to accelerate, market demand continues to expand, market expectations remain generally stable, macroeconomic conditions are favorable, and overall zinc market demand is strongly supported.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates has decreased

The month on month growth in retail sales in the United States in March was stronger than expected, weakening investor expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut. US bond yields quickly broke through high levels, and the US dollar index jumped to a five month high. The US dollar index has been consolidating at high levels in April. Federal Reserve officials are hawkish in their statements, and expectations of interest rate cuts have fallen to freezing point.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, in the domestic market, the acceleration of economic recovery, macroeconomic benefits, and increased support for the rise in zinc prices. In the international market, the performance of economic data in Europe and America is average, with financial sentiment supporting the non-ferrous sector. The three major US stock indexes rebounded together, providing impetus for the metal market. In terms of supply: The international market has a tight supply of zinc ore, and domestic zinc mining enterprises have started resuming work and production in late April. However, the progress has not been as expected, making it difficult to alleviate the expectation of tight zinc ore supply. In the future, the supply of zinc in the market is tightening, demand is rebounding, and it is expected that zinc prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.