According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic rare earth market prices rose significantly in April. On April 29th, the rare earth index was 403 points, an increase of 34 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 59.98% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 48.71% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have significantly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 405000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 12.5%; The price of neodymium metal is 520000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.04%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 407500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.99%; The price of praseodymium metal is 537500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.40%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 505000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 15.43%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 402500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 13.38%.

The domestic heavy rare earth market prices have significantly increased, with dysprosium oxide prices reaching 2.025 million yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a price increase of 10.96%; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.625 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 9.15%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 11.73%; The price of metallic terbium is 8.2 million yuan/ton, and the price of oxidized terbium is 6.775 million yuan/ton, with prices of all products rising.

In April, the price trend of the domestic rare earth market increased significantly, and downstream enterprise inventories were depleted. The procurement of rare earth products increased in April, and the domestic rare earth market transactions were good. Inquiries improved, and there was little change in the operating rates of separated enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangxi, resulting in low rare earth production; In addition, some magnetic material companies have started purchasing, leading to an increase in rare earth prices. Recently, the import of some rare earth raw materials has decreased, and the supply of rare earth products is slightly tight. Positive factors have affected the trend of the rare earth market.

According to statistics, in March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 863000 and 883000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28.1% and 35.3%, respectively. From January to March 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 2.115 million and 2.09 million respectively, an increase of 28.2% and 31.8% year-on-year. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, providing strong support for the rare earth market, with the domestic rare earth market mainly rising.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments announced the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, with a slowdown in the growth rate of the indicators. In addition, China’s rare earth exports from January to March 2024 were 13483.5 tons, while China’s rare earth exports in March were 4709.6 tons; It has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market, and the rare earth market has slightly risen.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, and the inquiry situation has improved compared to before. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.