According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market first rose and then fell in October 2024. From October 1st to 30th, the domestic toluene market price fell from 5890 yuan/ton to 5860 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.51% during the period.

In the first half of October 2024, the toluene market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. This cycle coincided with the National Day holiday, during which the external market continued to rise. The toluene market made up for the post holiday gains, and the overall ex factory prices of main refineries increased. However, downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support, resulting in weak growth in the toluene market. After the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, and market supply increased. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell back, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong.

In the second half of the month, the toluene market continued to decline. During the holiday period, the external market continued to rise, with the toluene market rebounding after the holiday. The overall ex factory prices of the main refineries rose, but downstream follow-up was insufficient and lacked demand support. The toluene market had weak upward momentum, and after the holiday, there were more arrivals in the port market, resulting in increased market supply. Under the influence of sufficient supply, the toluene market rose and then fell, and the overall trading in the spot market was weak. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong, and the overall market price declined.

Cost aspect: The international oil price market rose first and then fell during this cycle, with international crude oil futures closing down as of October 29th. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States is $67.21 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $70.73 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at high levels, which is partly due to the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East. This news is positive for international oil prices. On the other hand, the supply of crude oil remains tight. The OPEC+2.2 million barrels per day production reduction before the end of November will still be effective, and some oil producing countries have stated that they will carry out compensatory production cuts. The supply shortage still exists, and the international crude oil price trend is rising. In addition, the local economy in Asia has improved, and the market’s panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. The crude oil market is mainly volatile.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation rose first and then fell during the cycle, but there were slight differences in the amplitude of each underground quotation. At present, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of equipment is stable, the products are mostly for personal use, and the production and sales are stable. As of October 27th, East China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5900 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and the demand support for toluene is relatively weak

On October 31st, Sinopec Sales Company implemented a price of 7300 yuan/ton for xylene, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the price on September 30th, 2024. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle, with CFR China closing at $829-831/ton as of October 30th, a cumulative decrease of $13/ton from $842-844/ton at the end of September.

The overall decline of the Asian toluene market this cycle, as of Wednesday (October 30th), the Asian toluene market closed down: the FOB Korea closing price in October was 666-668 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton; The closing price of CFR China in October is 699-701 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars per ton.

Market forecast: In the near future, the toluene market will be less affected by crude oil and mainly affected by supply and demand. The market supply has significantly increased recently, and refineries are actively reducing prices to sell their accumulated inventory. Downstream demand will basically maintain on-demand procurement, and gasoline demand in some areas will perform well. However, overall, there is still support on the demand side. It is expected that the toluene market will remain stable in the short term, with slight fluctuations being the main trend.