According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from February 17 to February 24, 2025. On February 17th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6640 yuan/ton, and on February 24th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.05%. This week, the overall toluene market has been weak, with market prices experiencing several small price reductions. The performance of the oil blending industry in Shandong region is average, with xylene prices operating at a low level. Some purchasing refineries tend to purchase xylene, lacking demand support for the weak operation of the toluene market in Shandong region. The overall supply of goods in East and South China is tight this week, and the holders have a strong mentality of raising prices. Downstream purchasing intentions are generally low, and the market performance is weak due to the lack of demand support.

Cost aspect: During this cycle, crude oil prices first rose and then fell. As of February 21st, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.40 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $74.43 per barrel. The geopolitical risks in the Middle East have decreased, and the premium of oil prices has fallen; In addition, the increase in US crude oil inventories has affected investor confidence. During this cycle, crude oil prices have fluctuated at a low level. On the one hand, the US has imposed tariffs and Trump has requested OPEC to increase production to lower oil prices. In addition, US crude oil inventories remain high, and there are still concerns in the market about crude oil demand, which has suppressed crude oil prices; On the other hand, the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine has eased, and crude oil market prices remain low.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene enterprise is operating normally, with stable production of equipment and many products for personal use, resulting in stable production and sales. As of February 24th, East China Company quoted 6600 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6500 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6600-6700 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6550 yuan/ton.

Demand side:

On February 24th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, with a current execution price of 7500 yuan/ton. This price was implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. The operation of Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities was stable, with normal sales, and the price was temporarily stable compared to February 17th. As of February 21st, the closing prices of the xylene market in Asia were 860-862 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 885-887 US dollars/ton CFR China, an increase of only 1 US dollar/ton compared to the closing price on February 14th.

Market forecast: The recent performance of the crude oil market is weak, and there is insufficient guidance for the market. In terms of supply, the arrival of ships in the East and South China regions has been limited recently, and the cargo holders have a strong mentality of raising prices. However, the overall performance of the demand side is poor, and the focus is on on-demand procurement. Overall, the supply side is tight but lacks downstream demand support. It is expected that the toluene market will maintain a high volatility trend in the short term, with a focus on port and shipping schedules as well as the commencement of maintenance work by companies