1、 Price trend

This week, Shandong’s civil gas market mainly fell. On May 10, the average price of liquefied gas (Shandong) market was 3033.33 yuan / ton, and on May 15, the average price was 2900.00 yuan / ton, with a weekly decline of 4.40%. The price was 33.33% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Price: the price of liquefied gas in the civil market is down this week. As of May 15, the export price of Jilin Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2600 yuan / ton, Guangzhou Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2610 yuan / ton, Jingmen Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2750 yuan / ton, Shanghai Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2900 yuan / ton, Gaoqiao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2900 yuan / ton, Qingdao Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2800 yuan / ton, Shandong Jincheng Petrochemical liquefied gas is 2900 yuan / ton/ Tons, the factory price of Shijiazhuang refined liquefied gas is 2700 yuan / ton. The factory price of Luoyang Petrochemical LPG is 2750 yuan / ton.

Market: after May Day holiday, CP soared, and crude oil rose, driving the price of liquefied gas up. But the market was too short, and then prices fell. At present, the benefits brought by crude oil to the market are limited. With the completion of replenishment after the downstream holiday, the main consumption of inventory has been withdrawn from the market. The market transaction atmosphere has become weaker than that in the earlier stage, the manufacturer’s shipment has been blocked, and the inventory has gradually increased. At present, the market supply is sufficient, but affected by seasonal factors, the weather is gradually warming, the terminal demand is reduced, and the liquefied gas market is about to usher in the traditional demand off-season. The long replenishment cycle in the lower reaches leads to the imbalance of market supply and demand, and the decline of LPG civil market is the main reason.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 7 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are WTI crude oil (6.53%), petroleum coke (3.23%) and power coal (2.97%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and the top 3 products falling are liquefied natural gas (- 3.96%), liquefied gas (- 3.33%) and coking coal (- 3.24%). This week’s average was – 0.31%.

3、 Future forecast

At present, crude oil has limited advantages, the downstream mentality is cautious, the enthusiasm for entering the market is general, the manufacturer’s shipment is blocked, and the inventory is increasing. In the later stage, affected by seasonal factors, with the gradual increase of weather and temperature, the terminal demand decreases, the downstream replenishment cycle lengthens, and the liquefied gas enters into the traditional off-season of sales, which is expected to be dominated by short-term or weak consolidation.