In June, the price trend of adipic acid continued the consolidation market in May, and the price rise and fall was weak and the market was calm. According to the data of the business agency, the price of adipic acid increased slightly in June, but the monthly decline was only 0.9%. As shown in the figure above, the price of adipic acid mainly fluctuated between 100-200 yuan / ton. As of May 29, the mainstream quotation of adipic acid in East China was generally 6500-6800 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream cost, crude oil continued to consolidate at a high level, and its impact on the downstream was gradually weakened. Pure benzene, the upstream product of adipic acid, decreased significantly in June, and the high level fell. From the beginning of June to now, as of June 30, and the business agency monitoring shows that the decline of pure benzene is 6.67% (as shown in the figure below). At present, the weak market of adipic acid is mainly affected by supply and demand. In May, the sharp rise of pure benzene by 15% did not bring fundamental benefits to adipic acid. In June, pure benzene was recalled, adipic acid still did not follow, and the contradiction between supply and demand was still the main reason that puzzled adipic acid market out of the haze Because.

In terms of market supply, the operating rate of enterprises remained high in June, basically above 80%. The supply of goods is sufficient, and the pressure of manufacturers’ inventory is high. And the shipping strength is not good. At present, although most of the dealers have returned to normal picking up goods, the current downstream demand is affected by the weakening domestic demand and the suppression of overseas epidemic situation. The dealers are still relatively cautious in taking delivery of goods, and some dealers purchase according to the order, rather than inventory operation. Generally speaking, the market has been showing a high trend of both enterprise inventory and market inventory, and de stocking may continue in the future.

From the perspective of terminal demand, the downstream demand has not changed compared with may, and is still in the off-season level. The operating rate of downstream factories has not significantly increased, and the overall consumption level of nylon 66 and polyurethane industry has not increased significantly, which is difficult to boost the market of upstream raw materials. Especially affected by the operating rate of downstream real estate sector generally lower than that of the same period last year, the sales of polyurethane and other thermal insulation materials are also lower than that of the same period last year. In addition, downstream products such as PA66 did not get out of the dilemma. In June, the price of PA66 was still hovering at a low level. Although there was an upward trend, the increase was quite limited. As of June 30, PA66 rose by nearly 0.53% in the whole month (as shown in the figure below). The basic reason why adipic acid price is difficult to get out of the downturn is the low end demand. In addition, in addition to the weak domestic demand, external demand has also worsened. Especially affected by the overseas epidemic situation, the external demand continues to decline, and the export trade orders of overseas terminal footwear, leather and other manufacturing industries have declined, and the terminal demand may further shrink in June. As the delivery of export orders in the previous period has been completed, the number of new orders has dropped sharply, which may further force enterprises to reduce the burden To relieve supply pressure.

In the later stage, the business club believes that the current oil price has reached a periodic high, and it has slightly stopped rising and falling due to the expansion of overseas epidemic situation at the end of this month, and the recovery trend of chemical industry has also been restrained to a certain extent, and the fundamentals are mainly empty. In addition, the cost side is affected by the callback of pure benzene, and the price support of hexanedioic acid is weakened, which does not rule out the subsequent decline. More importantly, the demand side still can not be seen He Lihao, adipic acid has been consolidation in a narrow range for two consecutive months from May to June. The so-called long-term decline is inevitable. In the context of demand slowdown caused by the current epidemic situation, it is not ruled out that adipic acid prices may continue to explore lower.