1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of urea in Shandong Province first fell and then rose. The quotation first fell from 1636.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1630.00 yuan / ton on July 22, a decrease of 0.41%, and then rose to 1636.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 14.16%. Overall, this week’s urea market temporarily stable, July 24 urea commodity index was 76.12.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream urea factory price in Shandong this week has been up and down. At the end of this week, the price of urea in Yangmei plain was 1640 yuan / ton, which was 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Shandong Ruixing urea was 1610 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was 20 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; the price of Mingshui urea was 1660 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of market demand, the domestic corn topdressing is in the end in the near future, and rice topdressing is mainly used in the later stage; in terms of industrial demand, the downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises are affected by the air pollution control, and the starting load is low, and the purchase of new orders slows down. In terms of supply: the early production reduction and maintenance devices have been restored, and the spot supply has increased slightly. International: in India mmtc’s urea bid on July 17, the trading volume was only 119500 tons, unable to meet India’s demand. Therefore, on the evening of July 22, India’s mmtc issued a new round of urea bidding, and the tender was closed on July 30, and the shipping date was until September 4. Under the influence of this news, the business mentality improved, and the domestic urea transaction slightly improved.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chain, the overall situation of urea upstream products dropped slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas was temporarily stable, with the quotation of 2463.33 yuan / ton, which was 23.97% lower than that of the same period last year; the price of liquid ammonia this week dropped from 3060.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2900.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.23%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.76% compared with the same period last year The basic cost support is weak. This week, the quotation of melamine downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber sheet factory had a general enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a negative impact on the urea price.

3、 Future forecast

In the last ten days of July, the market situation of urea in Shandong was mainly fluctuated. Urea analysts from the business club believe that the current agricultural demand is low, and the downstream industry is generally enthusiastic about urea procurement. Although there is support from the printing mark, the support is weak, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.