1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, this week’s domestic toluene market stable small rebound. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3360 yuan / ton, up 0.6% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the international crude oil went down, flushed higher and fell again, and the overall trend remained volatile. Affected by this, the price of toluene rebounded slightly this week. However, due to the lower demand for blended oil and solvent in the downstream, the demand for toluene fell, and the market trading was not active. The price showed a slight stabilizing rebound, but it was not strong enough. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 3400 yuan / ton. Due to the weak GDP data of Europe and the United States in the second quarter, demand concerns caused by the new coronavirus epidemic and the deepening impact of geopolitical confrontation, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the continued spread of overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil due to the economic restart and recovery, as well as the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States.

Upstream, crude oil, this week, international oil prices down, high, fall again, overall maintain a volatile trend. As of Friday, spot Brent fell $0.01 per barrel, or 0.02%, to close at $42.885. The longer the oscillation lasts, the greater the possibility of large fluctuations in the future. Therefore, we must not be paralyzed by the boring market. The future market closely watched the fluctuation and breakthrough of Brent crude oil in the range of 40-44 USD / barrel.

In terms of TDI downstream, the market continues to explore, and the atmosphere in the market is slightly warmer. For domestic goods with bills, the reference for outbound offer is 11200-11500 yuan / ton, and that for Shanghai goods with bills is 11400-11600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will be stable. In terms of PX market, the listed price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises is about 4800 yuan / ton this week, and the latest external price is about 525 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 543 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to toluene analyst of chemical branch of business society: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of American oil wells and EIA, API inventory data. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the geopolitical situation between China and the United States, and the continuous deterioration of the global second epidemic situation have an impact on the economic restart of crude oil demand and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the impact of the continued spread of the overseas epidemic on the demand for crude oil, and the possible economic recovery rescue plan launched by Europe and the United States. On the whole, it is expected that toluene prices in the domestic market will continue to fluctuate slightly next week.