From December 10 to 12, with the support of Shanghai Stock Exchange, Zhengshang exchange, Dashang stock exchange and Huatai Securities, the “2021 derivatives market annual meeting” sponsored by Huatai futures was held in Hangzhou, Shanghai and Beijing. The meeting focused on wealth management characterized by futures derivatives based on major asset allocation, as well as black building materials, precious metals and nonferrous metals, energy and chemical industry, agricultural products, financial technology, etc Big theme.

On the afternoon of December 2022, Liu Xitai delivered a speech on the theme of “rising of energy and chemical industry: the leader of China chemical industry group” in the afternoon of December 2022.

Looking back on the development of the chemical industry in the past year, Liu Xi believes that the epidemic situation and low oil prices in the first half of the year accelerated the bottom of the profitability of the industry, and the profits of most sub industries declined. However, the profits of epidemic related products increased greatly, and the prosperity of most sub industries rebounded in the third quarter.

Looking ahead to the chemical industry next year, Liu Xi said that from the demand side, domestic demand for chemicals has been gradually restored since the second quarter, while the foreign demand needs to achieve a weak recovery since the third quarter, and there is a strong expectation of repair next year. “On the supply side, the overall capital expenditure has slowed down, while the expansion of production will be concentrated on leading enterprises, and environmental protection and production safety constraints will benefit the leading enterprises. With the gradual control of the epidemic situation, oil prices are expected to gradually return to the equilibrium level.”

For the long-term prospects of the chemical industry, Liu Xi believes that the shale gas revolution has promoted the increase in the supply of basic chemical raw materials (ethane, propane, etc.) and the decline in the price center, which provides a reliable development prospect for new refining and chemical units such as Ethane Dehydrogenation and PDH. “In the future, a large number of new large-scale refining and chemical integration enterprises will enter the Bureau, driving the olefin and other chemical production capacity into a new round of expansion cycle. The continuous entry of new advanced production capacity will lead to the reshuffle of the whole chemical industry, and some backward production capacity with short industrial chain process will be phased out in the future. ”

Overall, he believes that the overall prosperity of the chemical industry will enter an upward cycle in the future, which will be accompanied by a gradual rebound in demand and continuous optimization of the supply side. The whole industry is expected to develop towards integration and centralization.

Liu Xihua is expected to focus on a few downstream industries and focus on the recovery of downstream industries. It is expected that the company will continue to focus on upgrading its downstream products and focus on the lower end of the industry Long base, and is expected to drive the oil product market reform, and will benefit private gas station leading enterprises; second, the demand side has incremental segmentation industry, automobile exhaust purification materials, degradable plastics and other industries downstream demand is stimulated by the implementation of policies, there is a large space for growth, and product production and certification link has high barriers, some high-performance auxiliaries benefit from downstream consumption upgrading Driving demand growth and supply side contraction, it is expected to usher in an upward cycle; third, the demand of semiconductor chemicals, carbon fiber and other sub industries maintains growth, and the import substitution logic is still sustainable; fourth, in view of the longer-term prospect of the industry, for each sub industry, the leader of the sub industry will ultimately drive the industry through the optimization of stock and the expansion of new categories.