1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), on November 5, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 9340 yuan / ton, a decrease of 960 yuan / ton compared with 10300 at the beginning of the week, a decrease of 9.32% during the week and an increase of 27.29% compared with the same period last year.
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2、 Market analysis
The PVC market continued to decline this week, with a decline of about 9% during the week, and the focus continued to move down. During the week, the disk continued to weaken, the price of PVC futures continued to decline, and the spot market followed the decline rapidly. The quotation of enterprises fell again and again, making it difficult to price. For example, the quotation of Beiyuan, China salt and other enterprises has been as low as 8800 yuan / ton, falling below the 9000 yuan mark and falling to the price level in August. The increase was basically spit back. The mentality of cargo holders was negative and continued to reduce prices for shipment. At present, due to the increase in the output of raw calcium carbide and the decline in the price of blue carbon, calcium carbide fell by about 24% during the week, with the lowest price of 4100 yuan / ton. The support of the cost side was weakened and the demand was weak. It still maintained the just needed replenishment and bargain hunting. Under the situation of weak cost and demand, the high price of PVC was difficult to support, so that the price continued to decline.
In terms of spot, at present, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8800-9650 yuan / ton, and the range of pvc5 electric stone in Hangzhou is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream of pvc5 electric stone in Shanghai is 9100-9300 yuan / ton; The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou is 9500-9650 yuan / ton, and the market price in various parts of China continues to decline.
Data show that at present, CFR China is down 50 yuan at 1650 US dollars / ton, CFR Southeast Asia is down 60 yuan at 1750 US dollars / ton, and CFR India is stable at 1900 US dollars / ton.
region workmanship 11 / 5 (yuan / ton) 11 / 1 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 9000-9500 9900-10250 – 900/-750 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 9250-9550 10100-10500 – 850/-950 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 8900-9400 9850-10000 – 950/-600 Delivered
southwest Calcium carbide method 8950-9200 9600-10000 – 650/-800 Delivered
On November 5, the international oil price rebounded sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $81.27/barrel, up US $2.46 or 3.1%, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was US $82.74/barrel, up US $2.20 or 2.7%. Despite the pressure of the US government, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) still maintained their previous policies, the market expectation of future supply shortage remained unchanged, and the oil price was supported.
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For ethylene, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and consolidated last week, rising slightly. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1176.25/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1187.75/t, up 0.98%. The current price increased by 5.55% month on month, and the current price increased by 66.35% year-on-year. At present, in terms of crude oil: the recent crude oil market has fallen, but the overall price of crude oil is still at a high level, so the data analysts of business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.
Calcium carbide, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply last week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the disk is weak, the PVC futures price continues to fall, driving the sharp decline in the spot market price. At the same time, the price of raw calcium carbide is reduced, the demand is weak, and the cost demand is weak. It is expected that the PVC market will be difficult to find good in the short term, and the market will continue to be weak.
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