1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 46666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 36666.67 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 21.43% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. At present, the overall market is relatively cold, and there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. The downstream purchases yellow phosphorus at a low price, and the transaction price is mostly close to the low end. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 32000-35000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 40000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 35000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, according to the data monitoring of business society, as of November 5, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in the mainstream areas of China was around 663 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on November 1, and increased by 83 yuan / ton or 14.37% compared with that on September 1 (the reference average price of phosphate rock was 580 yuan / ton). At present, the overall supply of phosphate rock in some parts of China continues to be tight, and some Guizhou mining enterprises do not quote for the time being and only receive orders from old customers. Therefore, phosphate rock analysts of business society believe that in the short term, most of China’s phosphate rock market will continue to operate at a high level.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke in Shandong Port decreased slightly. The mainstream spot exchange ex warehouse price of quasi primary coke in the port is 3950-4000 yuan / ton. The first round of increase and decrease landed, and the market price followed the decline. The overall mentality of the port market is weak, the source of goods available for sale is still small, the port inventory increased slightly, and traders actively ship. The quotation of secondary metallurgical coke in Panzhihua coke market is 4270 yuan / ton. At present, some steel mills have started the first round of raising and lowering 200 yuan / ton, and some areas have landed. There are still many downstream steel mills with limited production and maintenance. Recently, the steel mills have made great efforts to limit production and have stricter expectations in the future. The demand for coke has declined and the purchase intention is slightly low. In terms of coking enterprises, the inventory in the plant is higher than that in the early stage, and the mentality of coking enterprises is declining. Without the support of downstream demand, coke prices may decline.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid moves downward, the market gradually cools down and the focus moves downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 14533.33 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11033.33 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 24.08% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the operating load of phosphoric acid enterprises is gradually increased, the space elasticity of adjustable price is increased, and the enthusiasm of the market is gradually cooled. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market will continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of business society, the price of yellow phosphorus fell sharply this week, and the phosphate rock operated stably. With the increase of electricity prices in various regions, the yellow phosphorus manufacturers had a strong attitude of supporting the price. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.