Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price first rose and then fell this week. The quotation first rose from 2475.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2504.00 yuan / ton on November 30, an increase of 1.17%, and then fell to 2498.00 yuan / ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.24%, a year-on-year increase of 37.50%. Overall, the urea market has twists and turns this week and has a downward trend over the weekend. On December 5, the urea commodity index was 116.19, unchanged from yesterday, down 19.63% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 108.97% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2450 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2480 yuan / ton this weekend, up from last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas fell sharply, and the quotation fell from 7363.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 6383.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 13.31%, a year-on-year increase of 51.98% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1085.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 66.35% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia increased slightly. The quotation increased from 4380.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4630.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 5.71%, up 46.21% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 17200.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 16126.67 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 6.24%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

In terms of demand, agricultural demand increased slightly at the end of the month, while industrial demand was mainly on the sidelines. The promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer was accelerated, large urea purchase orders began to appear in the downstream compound fertilizer plant at the end of the month, the inventory of melamine enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation was weakened. From the perspective of supply: the gas price of gas head enterprises increases, the maintenance increases, and the urea supply decreases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is better, the urea supply is insufficient, and the future urea mainly rises slightly.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the first ten days of December, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.