1、 Price trend
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According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene fell first and then rose this week. On December 3, the price was 5810 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 10), the price was 5800.2 yuan / ton, down 0.17% from last week and up 49.49% from the same period last year.
2、 Analysis and review
Crude oil rose broadly this week, with strong cost support, boosting the domestic toluene Market. However, because a large number of ships from Northeast China are sold to East China, the inventory is accumulated and the market is under pressure. Downstream demand continues to be rigid demand, with general support. During the week, the market followed Sinopec’s price adjustment and the increase was limited.
In terms of the external market, the Asian toluene rose slightly in the external market this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $703 / ton, up US $6 / ton, or 0.86%, compared with December 3.
In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain strong crude oil demand in the future, and raised the official sales price of all crude oil grades in Asia and the United States in January. The market’s concern about the inhibition of crude oil demand by the new crown mutant strain Omicron eased, the price rebounded sharply, and the price returned to above $70 / barrel. Brent rose $5.27 / barrel, or 7.54% this week; WTI rose $5.41/barrel, or 8.16%.
Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China rose this week. On December 10, the price of domestic goods was 14625 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.74% over last week and 15.16% over the same period last year.
In the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, up 55.81% over the same period last year. As of December 10, the closing prices in Asia were 814-816 us dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 832-834 US dollars / ton CFR China.
In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3 and 7789.2 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1.24% from last week and 36.57% from the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the new crown variant strain Omicron. Many countries strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures. Before further determining its impact, the demand for crude oil will still be limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.
A large number of ships are sold in Northeast China, and the market is under pressure; The downstream demand continues to be light, and the short-term toluene price is still affected by the trend of crude oil. Pay attention to the dynamics of toluene plant, downstream plant dynamics and demand, as well as the impact of crude oil and external market trend on toluene price.
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