1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business agency (average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the decline was 2.54% last week (12.13-12.17). On December 20, the average mainstream price of PVC in China was 8440 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton compared with 8660 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week, down 0.58% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
| EDTA |
Looking back last week, the PVC market continued to be weak, the price continued to decline, with a decrease of 2.54% during the week, and the market focus continued to move downward. Recently, the market is still good and difficult to find. The PVC price has been steadily reduced, with a daily decline of about 1% and a narrow adjustment. Although the futures price has rebounded to a certain extent, it has a limited impact on the spot market. A few enterprises try to rebound, but the demand is off-season, the transmission of high prices is not smooth, and the price is still the main actor. At present, the demand is gradually weakening in the off-season, especially in the north, with obvious cooling, declining commencement and reduced demand, as well as in other mainstream regions. The downstream purchasing mood is negative, maintaining rigid demand, and the market trading atmosphere is general. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises is mostly around 8200-8700 yuan / ton, and that of ethylene enterprises is mostly 9350-9500 yuan / ton, dominated by bad, PVC prices fell.
According to the weekly rise and fall from September 27 to December 19, 2021, the domestic PVC cycle rose in the early stage. Since October, the downward channel has been opened. Since November, the decline has narrowed compared with the early stage, with a fluctuation of less than 3%, but the market is still weak.
As for the external price, up to now, CFR China has fallen 50 to US $1350 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia has fallen 100 to US $1350 / ton, and CFR India has fallen 10 to US $1590 / ton. In January 2022, the PVC quotation of Formosa Plastics in Taiwan was reduced, FOB Taiwan fell 190 to 1270 US dollars / ton, CIF China fell 130 to 1360 US dollars / ton, CIF India fell 120 to 1590 US dollars / ton, and CIF Northeast Asia fell 100 to 1430 US dollars / ton.
International crude oil, December 17, international oil prices fell. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $70.72/barrel, down US $1.66 or 2.29%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $73.52/barrel, down US $1.50 or 2.0%. The main reason is the surge in cases of the mutant strain Omicron. The market is worried that the implementation of new restrictions may depress fuel demand and put pressure on oil prices.
Ethylene, on December 17, the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $768-786 / ton, up US $106 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen, and the demand is general. On December 17, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1489-1494 / T, up US $92 / T, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1385-1394 / T, up US $71 / T. On December 17, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1051-1061 / ton, down US $5 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1036-1046 / ton, down US $5 / ton. Affected by the decline of upstream crude oil price, the ethylene market may mainly fall below in the later stage.
| Melamine |
Calcium carbide, in late December, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate slightly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the downstream PVC market also showed a downward trend. It was difficult for the market to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late December.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that recently, PVC prices are still the following actors, and enterprises continue to reduce prices and sell goods for profit. However, in the off-season of demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, coupled with the decline of raw materials, and the market is full of negative factors. It is expected that the PVC market is easy to fall but difficult to rise in the short term.
| http://www.lubonchem.com/ |