1、 Price trend
According to the bulk list data of business society, pure benzene fluctuated higher in the first half of this month, with an increase of more than 5%; In the second half of the month, prices fell first and then rose, and prices continued to rise. On December 1, the price was 6100-6450 yuan / ton (the average price was 6340 yuan / ton); On December 30, the price was 6950-7100 yuan / ton (the average price was 7020 yuan / ton), the highest price of this month appeared on December 30, the price was 7020 yuan / ton, and the lowest price appeared on December 2-3, the price was 6310 yuan / ton. This month increased by 10.73%, up 66.98% over the same period last year, and the difference between the highest and lowest prices in the month was 710 yuan / ton.
2、 Analysis and review
In the first ten days, pure benzene fluctuated upward in a narrow range. In mid June, Shandong hyped the news that new downstream devices were about to be put into operation, and the price rose rapidly. However, the production of downstream units was delayed, and the port continued to be tired, and the price of pure benzene fluctuated and fell to the end of the month. Downstream production and replenishment at the end of the month led to a new round of rise in pure benzene.
This month, the pure benzene market continued to be affected by the bad accumulation of port inventory. The price fell after rising for many times. At the end of the month, the accumulated inventory rose to a high level, and the inventory pressure in East China was obvious.
| Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent) |
This month, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was mainly increased four times, with a total increase of 850 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton. Affected by demand, North China fluctuated more frequently.
In terms of crude oil, the international oil price rebounded after falling to a low at the beginning of the month. The market constantly weighed the impact of Omicron mutant strain on economy and demand, and the international oil price fluctuated and rose. As of December 30, Brent rose $8.75 / barrel, or 12.4%; WTI rose $10.81/barrel, or 16.33%.
In terms of external market, Asian pure benzene rose mainly this month. In the early morning of December 23, a fire broke out at Mobil plant in Texas, USA, which affected the pure benzene plant. The US gold market rose significantly, driving the rise of pure benzene in Asia. On December 30, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $986 / T, an increase of US $139 / T or 16.41% over November 30; Pure benzene imported from East China was USD 992.5/t, an increase of USD 119.5/t or 13.69% over November 30.
Downstream, styrene: after the shock rise of styrene this month, it fell broadly, and the price rebounded again at the end of the month. On December 1, the production price in Shandong was 7787.5 yuan / ton, and on December 30, the price was 8310 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.71% this month and 39.27% over the same period last year.
Aniline: aniline fell first and then rose this month. The market supply of aniline increased, the on-site buying was weak, the downstream consumption inventory was dominated, and the price fell. However, the cost side rose, driven by the bargain hunting sentiment in the downstream, the aniline inventory consumed rapidly, and the price stopped falling and rose broadly. On December 1, the price in Shandong was 9200-9380 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 9300-9500 yuan / ton; On December 30, the price in Shandong was 9500-9980 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing was 10000 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.78% this month and 23.63% over the same period last year.
3、 Future forecast
| povidone Iodine |
In terms of raw materials, the prospect of crude oil demand is good, and the short-term high level of crude oil fluctuates under the positive influence of high European natural gas prices. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the impact of global climate, epidemic situation, OPEC + decisions on output, US crude oil and refined oil storage dynamics, global economic conditions and so on on on crude oil prices.
Downstream main product styrene: Port inventory decreased, and some goods were sold at low prices, and domestic short-term spot was still tight. However, the domestic styrene is expected to increase one after another, and the weak downstream demand inhibits the market growth. In the short term, the styrene market is more likely to rise and fall.
In the short term, the Asian pure benzene market will continue to be affected by the US gold plate, and the price will remain high. Affected by public health events, the unloading cycle of the port will be prolonged, and the downstream air filling will also push up the price of pure benzene. However, at present, there are still a large number of shipments of pure benzene in transit. In the later stage, the port inventory will continue to increase, the inventory pressure will not decrease, and the market may be restricted. On the whole, pure benzene is expected to continue to rise. Beware of the possibility of price decline after the good news dissipates. Continue to pay attention to the dynamic market of downstream, the dynamics of domestic pure benzene units, and the impact of the trend of crude oil and external disk on the price of pure benzene.
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