Last week (1.3-7), the market of liquid ammonia rose steadily, partially affected by the decline of ammonia volume, the price recovered slightly, and the price market of Shandong and Hebei stabilized and rose. There is no significant change in southwest, northwest and other places. However, at present, the market is still in a balanced supply and demand and partially tight situation. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of January 7, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 0.76%. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4100-4300 yuan / ton.

On the supply side, last week, the operating rate of liquid ammonia remained stable, the ammonia amount in the main production areas of Shandong, Hebei and two lakes changed little, the ammonia release amount of some manufacturers in Shandong decreased, and the local supply was slightly tightened. As well as the recovery of urea price in the lower reaches, some ammonia volume was affected. The ammonia volume of southwest gas head enterprises and Northwest China was stable, and the price fluctuated slightly.

On the cost side, at present, the price of liquid ammonia is still driven by the improvement of the cost side, and the coal stopped falling and rebounded after the festival. The weekly rebound was 3.8%. Near the end of the year, due to the impact of safety inspection, the supply of thermal coal has been tightened, but the supply guarantee policy continues. On the whole, the supply is still relatively loose, the sales situation of origin has improved, and the coal price has increased after the reduction; In terms of ports, after new year’s day, downstream inquiry increased, market activity increased, and traders’ market sentiment improved. The rise of coal prices led to the follow-up of methanol and urea in the downstream, and liquid ammonia followed up slightly.

From the demand side, urea and compound fertilizer have improved. Urea rose by 1.65% in the week. Industrial demand is mainly just demand, and agricultural demand has improved slightly. Winter wheat Topdressing and fertilizer winter storage accelerated in some areas, and dealers followed up bargain hunting. In terms of supply, the maintenance of gas head urea enterprise has not been completed, and the urea supply is tight. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is improved, and the urea supply is insufficient. It is expected that there are still some interesting points in urea and compound fertilizer in the near future.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. At present, there are signs of further widening the price difference between urea and liquid ammonia, indicating that the market of liquid ammonia is still weaker than that of urea.

From the above figure and the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram, the liquid ammonia industry chain has improved slightly, the price of natural gas in the upstream of the gas head has increased strongly, and the price of ammonia enterprises in the southwest gas head may tend to be strong in the later stage. However, many downstream products still show a downward trend, indicating that the downstream is still weak and lack of substantive improvement.

Future forecast: the business community believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is basically balanced and partially tight, and the cost side may continue to support the ammonia price. It is expected that liquid ammonia will still have room to rise in the near future, but subject to the demand increase or limited.