Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2732.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2902.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, up 38.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On March 10, the urea commodity index was 134.70, up 1.21 points from yesterday, down 6.83% from the highest point 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 142.27% from the lowest point 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2950 yuan / ton this weekend, up 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2900 yuan / ton this weekend, up 190 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, up 180 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea quoted 2890 yuan / ton this weekend, up 190 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 7104.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 7278.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 2.45%, a year-on-year increase of 118.78% compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have risen slightly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4420.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 4553.33 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3.02%, a year-on-year increase of 34.45% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, and the quotation was 12000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand: agricultural demand starts and industrial demand increases. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is the main.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In mid March, the domestic urea market was dominated by slight fluctuation and rise. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market rose slightly and the cost support increased. Downstream demand is gradually increasing. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season. The Winter Olympic Games is coming to an end and the factory is gradually returning to work. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is good, the urea supply is normal, and the future urea is mainly increased by a slight shock.