1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8950 yuan / ton on April 24, down 20 yuan / ton from 8970 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 0.22% during the week and up 0.85% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market fluctuated this week, the price rose at the beginning of the week, and then fluctuated and fell. The price trend in the week was down, down 0.22%. This week, the disk fluctuated, the futures price fell, driving the trend of spot price. Moreover, the price of raw calcium carbide fell by 1.22%, and the supporting force of cost fell. In addition, the impact of public health events in various parts of China continued, the logistics was still limited, the construction of downstream enterprises declined, and the purchasing enthusiasm decreased. It only maintained the demand for just needed replenishment. The offer of PVC enterprises followed the market, adjusted in a narrow range, and the actual transactions were mostly negotiated. At present, the price of raw calcium carbide is stable at about 4000-4100 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of domestic pvc5 calcium carbide enterprises is mostly around 8700-9250 yuan / ton. For the external price, CFR China fell 50 to US $1340 / ton, Southeast Asia fell 50 to US $1420 / ton, and CFR India fell 70 to US $1560 / ton.

According to the weekly rise and fall from January 31, 2022 to April 21, 2022, domestic PVC rose and fell in the cycle, with the largest increase in the week of February 7 and the largest decline in the week of February 21, and then fluctuated in a narrow range.

International crude oil: on April 22, the price of international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $102.07/barrel, down US $1.72 or 1.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $106.15/barrel, down US $1.10 or 1.0%. The market is intertwined with long and short, the global economic recovery slows down, the Federal Reserve’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the domestic epidemic suppresses demand, and oil prices are under pressure. On the other hand, the EU is considering imposing an oil ban on Russia, tightening supply expectations and limiting the decline in oil prices..

Ethylene, on April 13, the external ethylene market showed a downward trend this week. The price of ethylene in Asia was stable. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1306-1316 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton. European ethylene market prices fell. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1966-1977 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1511-1520 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 21st, the price was 624-643 yuan / ton. This week, the trading atmosphere in the external ethylene market was general, the transaction was poor, and the market continued to decline.

Calcium carbide, in late April, the market of calcium carbide may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range. The price of raw material blue carbon fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, the downstream PVC market showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in late April.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of raw materials has been reduced, the cost support has been weakened, coupled with the limited downstream demand, and the overall trading of the market is tepid. It is expected that the PVC market will operate weakly in the short term.