On August 29, the crude benzene commodity index was 104.40, which was the same as yesterday, down 20.81% from the highest point 131.84 in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 241.85% from the lowest point 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now).
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In August 2022, the crude benzene market fluctuated downward. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 7487 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6643 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly drop of 11.27%.
In terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price in August declined by 5.64%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.06/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.01/barrel. The decline of crude oil price is mainly due to the large decline in the middle and early August. On the one hand, the pessimistic view of the recent economic recession dominates the market, and the economic data is generally weak, which once again causes the market to worry about the global economic recession. In addition, the market is waiting for the negotiation results of the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, and the supply tension is expected to ease, which puts pressure on the international oil price. Previously, the market focus was mainly on the results of the OPEC + ministerial meeting. Finally, the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee (jmmc) decided to increase production by 100000 barrels / day in September. This increase in production is significantly smaller than the previous 648000 barrels, which is the smallest increase in the history of the institution. Although the increase in production this time is small, equivalent to about 0.1% of the global oil demand, OPEC + actually reserves more room for increase in production. Finally, according to the estimation of the International Energy Agency (IEA), within six months after the resumption of the Iran nuclear agreement, Iran is expected to increase the additional capacity of about 1.3 million barrels / day. This is also a reversal of the market’s view on supply tightening, and the trend of international oil prices has declined. The international oil price rebounded in late August. On the one hand, the US inventory data supported it. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil was still strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession. In a comprehensive view, the crude oil price trend declined in August.
On August 29, international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $97.01/barrel, up US $3.95 or 4.24%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $102.93/barrel, up US $3.92 or 3.96%. Benefited from the expectation that the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) may reduce production, and superimposed the armed conflict in Libya; The positive effect of supply tightening has played down the negative impact of the global economic recession.
Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)
Date, adjusted price, adjusted amount
August 2, 8650, – 200
August 4, 8450, – 200
August 5, 8150, – 300
August 11, 7950, – 200
August 16, 7750, – 200
August 18, 7500, – 250
August 30, 7600., + 100
In August 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced for six consecutive times, with only one increase at the end of the month, from 8650 yuan / ton at the beginning of August to 7600 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative decrease of 1050 yuan / ton. As of 30th, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene was 7600 yuan / ton.
Quotations of other enterprises: the quotation of Jingbo Petrochemical is 7650 yuan / ton, the quotation of Weilian chemical is 7503 yuan / ton, the quotation of Xinhai Petrochemical is 7550 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Hongrun Petrochemical is 7750 yuan / ton.
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Looking at the trend in August, it can be seen that the two rounds of concentrated decline of hydrogenated benzene in this month are concentrated in the beginning of the month and the middle of August. At the beginning of this month, international crude oil futures fell continuously on August 4, falling to the lowest point since February. The bad news on the market demand side played a major role. At the beginning of this month, the economic data of many countries showed that the PMI data of major economies in the world in July was weak, which intensified the market’s concern about economic recession. On August 1, WTI fell by more than 4%. Although the overall supply of pure benzene in the same period was in a tight environment, due to the continuous wide drop of crude oil and the significant drop of pure benzene in the outer disk, the support for pure benzene from the external news was weak, and the demand for pure benzene in the downstream during the same period was increased. The demand for pure benzene slowed down, and the downstream demand was not well followed up. The pure benzene market was under pressure at the beginning of the month. Sinopec lowered the ex factory price for three consecutive times, with a total reduction of 700 yuan / ton, which once again affected the market mentality, The price of hydrogenated benzene dropped significantly in the same period. Another round of decline was concentrated in the middle of August. The oil price fell for three consecutive days due to the market’s concern about the global economic outlook. In the case of pure benzene, some of the previous shutdown and maintenance devices were restarted in the middle of August, resulting in an increase in domestic pure benzene supply. In terms of port cargo source, the imported cargo in the same period was concentrated in the port. The inventory of East China port increased by 6700 tons to 37700 tons in one week. The accumulated inventory of the port was obvious, and the overall supply side was mainly negative. In terms of demand, most downstream products suffered losses in the same period, and there were many shutdown and load reduction devices, so the demand for pure benzene was insufficient. During the same period, Sinopec has reduced the ex factory price of pure benzene for two consecutive times, with a cumulative decrease of 450 yuan / ton. The market negative factors are concentrated, and the price of pure benzene has been reduced intensively. In the same period, the market price of hydrogenated benzene is greatly affected by the industrial chain, and the decline is obvious.
In terms of supply: after the two rounds of increase and landing of coke price, the profit of coking enterprises recovered, and the start-up gradually increased. As of the 30th day, the conventional production limit was maintained at about 20%, and the output of related by-products increased to a certain extent compared with the previous period. At present, the supply of crude benzene is relatively stable.
In August, the trend of crude benzene declined significantly in the first half of the month, mainly due to the drag of the industrial chain. In the second half of the month, the bidding price stopped falling and rose. As of August 26, the last bidding in the month, the mainstream bidding price in Shandong was 6700-6705 yuan / ton, an increase of 180 yuan / ton over last week’s bidding price. In the future, the Business Association believes that the market expects the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises to rise. Recently, the crude oil price fluctuated upward and the basic support was strong. However, the overall inventory in East China is still high. The delivery of pure benzene at the end of the month was basically completed, and the downstream demand was not improved. The rise of styrene price on the 30th boosted the mentality of pure benzene. Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene, and the local refining price also increased. The industrial chain is still good. In general, the crude benzene market is both good and bad, and is obviously affected by the industrial chain. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and the impact of downstream demand on the crude benzene price.
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