In September, the BDO market broke through the bottleneck period and rose rapidly. According to the price monitoring of the business cooperative, the average price of domestic BDO manufacturers was 13900 yuan/ton as of September 16, up 36.11 percent from the beginning of the month

Since 2022, the contradiction between supply and demand in BDO market has been prominent. The supply is too much while the downstream demand is weak. The market price has continued to decline. Except for a 5.38% increase in February, the rest of the seven months have shown a downward trend, with the largest decline of 35.45% in July. As of the first ten days of August, the BDO market fell by more than 67%, and then entered a downturn consolidation period.

In September, the shutdown maintenance and load reduction of BDO’s main factories increased, the overall supply of goods gradually decreased, and the supply side support continued to strengthen, boosting market confidence. The production enterprises have a strong desire to be reluctant to sell the spot goods, and the auction transaction price keeps rising. Some production enterprises will not ship goods temporarily. At present, among the major manufacturers of BDO, only Xinjiang Lanshantunhe has published the monthly settlement price and the listing price of the New Moon. Some of the remaining manufacturers have negotiated the price under the contract, and the rest are mainly a small number of goods. The traders quickly “seized the opportunity” and the atmosphere of speculation was strong, which was the main reason for this round of rise.

In addition, the support on the cost side was stronger, and the price of maleic anhydride was also increased due to supply tightening and cost support turning down. As of September 16, the average market price of maleic anhydride in Shandong was 8660 yuan/ton, up 11.31% from the beginning of the month. Formaldehyde continued to rise, boosted by raw material methanol. In order to make profits, the formaldehyde manufacturer intentionally raised its quotation, which was 5.32% higher than the beginning of the month. Under the pressure of cost, the downstream PTMEG’s intention of price fixing is slightly enhanced. The industry started at a low level of 3.5%, but with the restart of Xiaoxing device, the BDO contract purchase volume increased.

In the future, according to the 730 moving average rule of the business community, since September 4, 2022, the 30 day moving average will be crossed on the 7th to start the upward trend. At present, the two moving averages will be upward at the same time. On September 11, 2022, it is estimated that the probability of the change of the operating situation (i.e., the 7-day moving average goes below the 30-day moving average) in the next 7 days is 39.29%. BDO analysts from the business agency believe that the short-term BDO price still has room to rise due to the tight supply, market speculation and upstream and downstream improvement.