1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose first and then fell this week. As of September 16, the spot nickel price was 191183.33 yuan/ton, up 0.99% from 189300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 28.69% year on year. The roller coaster market of nickel price this week was mainly because investors worried about short-term supply due to the fire in the Russian nickel factory. Later, the news was clarified, which had limited impact on nickel supply, and the nickel price fell back.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, the nickel price has risen by 3% and fallen by 9% in the past 12 weeks. Recently, the nickel price has fluctuated widely.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

On the macro level, the US CPI in August exceeded expectations. The US CPI in August rose 8.3% year on year, higher than the market expectation of 8.1%; On a month on month basis, it rose 0.1%, and the market is expected to decline 0.1%. The core CPI excluding food and energy rose 6.3% year on year and 0.6% month on month, both higher than market expectations. The discussion about the Fed’s interest rate increase next week was upgraded from “50 or 75 basis points” to “75 or 100 basis points”. For this reason, investors worry that further substantial interest rate hikes may inhibit economic growth and metal demand.

The supply of nickel ore is still tight compared with previous years, while the price of ferronickel has dropped sharply. The reduction of downstream stainless steel production has resulted in weak demand and negative profits. Therefore, the output and operating rate of ferronickel have been declining. Nickel consumption is mainly concentrated in stainless steel and power batteries. Stainless steel production is not affected by the epidemic, but it has a greater impact on the consumer side. In addition, the real estate industry has been in a downward cycle, which also affects the demand expectation of stainless steel. With the implementation of new policies, the growth rate of new energy vehicle production is likely to slow down. In August, China’s production of ternary precursors was 80000 tons, an increase of 16% month on month and 49% year on year. It is expected that the external demand will improve in September, and the output may increase.

Although the long-term fundamentals of nickel price are not good, the current supply and demand pressure has eased compared with the previous, and the macro view is still negative. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.