Overview of the trend of metal magnesium in June

The market price of magnesium ingots weakened in June. The price range of mainstream magnesium ingot factories, including tax and spot exchange, is between 20100 and 22000 yuan/ton, with a price increase or decrease of -6.57% during the cycle. At the beginning of the month, magnesium prices showed a trend of first suppressing and then increasing. As mainstream prices gradually fell to around the low point of 21000-22000 in the latter half of last month, some market demand entered the market and trading volume also improved. But the good times did not last long. After a brief rebound, due to short-term oversupply and difficulty in changing, the price of raw material silicon iron coal continued to decline. Under the combined influence of long and short factors, the price of magnesium ingots continued to decline. Until the end of the month, when the Dragon Boat Festival holiday returned, magnesium prices slightly rebounded, coupled with stronger cost support, rebounding by 500 yuan/ton compared to before the festival. However, facing the rising prices in the downstream market, there was no urgent need to restock and wait and see the market as the main factor, unable to support the continued upward trend of magnesium prices and weakening again.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 28th, the current exchange rate in the magnesium ingot market, including tax, was 20866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 1500 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month and a decrease of 20.25% compared to last year.

In terms of supply and demand

In terms of factories, although production has decreased, due to the impact of weak demand, factory inventory remains high. Although there is a mentality of favoring prices, market bearishness is intertwined, and it is often difficult to stabilize prices according to market conditions. In terms of demand, there has been no significant improvement in the current magnesium market demand, while overseas markets are about to experience a summer break, and export orders may be reduced again.

Ferrosilicon fell 1.66% in June

On June 28th, the quotation for ferrosilicon in Ningxia was between 6900-7000 yuan/ton, with an average market price of 6950 yuan/ton. In June, the prices of ferrosilicon and coal first fell and then rose. Although there was some support for the cost of magnesium ingots, it was unable to promote a sustained upward trend in nail enhancement. At present, the logic of ferrosilicon trading is shifting towards a general direction of “high inventory, high costs, and low demand”. Overall, the short-term long short game of ferrosilicon will not significantly weaken temporarily, but rather the divergence may increase, and the market may experience fluctuations and adjustments.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the current price is close to the cost line, factories have a willingness to stabilize prices, the demand side has poor acceptance of high priced resources, market transactions are poor, and there is a clear stalemate between supply and demand in the game. As we enter July, magnesium factories will continue to undergo summer maintenance, and it is expected that the magnesium price market will experience multiple sideways and slight fluctuations. In the future, we need to pay attention to the follow-up of downstream transactions.