1、 Trend analysis
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According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly increased this week. As of July 7th, the spot nickel quotation was 172116.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.52% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 2.29%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight rebound in recent times.
Nickel industry chain
LME nickel inventory
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On the macro level, the US suspended interest rate hikes as scheduled in June, and although hawkish signals were released that there may still be two more rate hikes, the market seems not very satisfied with this. The probability of next month’s rate hike is not yet firmly predicted, and domestic economic stabilization policies have also arrived as expected, providing protection for the recovery. Overall, macro sentiment has rebounded.
In terms of supply: In June, the national refined nickel production totaled 20400 tons, an increase of 9.39% month on month and 31.06% year-on-year. In addition, the inflow of Russian nickel long-term orders and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply.
In terms of demand: The overall demand for pure nickel is stable, with differentiated performance in the terminal field. The production of stainless steel reached a new high in May, and the production schedule remained basically unchanged in June; The order of ternary precursor recovered, and the price of Nickel(II) sulfate stabilized and rose; Alloy and electroplating companies maintain an attitude of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices.
In summary, the newly added production capacity of electrowinning nickel has been put into operation and increased. In June, domestic production exceeded the 20000 ton mark, and Russian nickel long-term orders have flowed into the country. At the same time, the domestic alloy and new energy industries have ushered in a peak season, showing a dual increase in supply and demand, stable supply growth, short-term demand growth expectations, and a pattern of buying at low prices and not buying at high prices in the middle and lower reaches. In the context of a double increase in supply and demand, it is expected that the short-term wide fluctuation trend of nickel prices will be the main trend.
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