1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, the price of mixed xylene has slightly increased this week. On July 10th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7540 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the benchmark price was 7700 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.12%.

2、 Analysis and Review

The market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25bp in July, and there is still financial pressure on oil prices; The June CPI data of the United States was lower than expected, and financial pressure has eased, leading to a rebound in market risk appetite; Saudi Arabia has stated that it will extend its voluntary production reduction of 1 million barrels per day for another month, while Russia has also stated that it will reduce production by 500000 barrels per day in August, bringing the total promised production reduction by OPEC+to 5.16 million barrels per day; China and India in the Asian region have driven oil demand growth of over 2 million barrels per day, easing concerns about economic recession in Europe and America.

Entering the summer season, the demand for tourism has increased, and the demand for gasoline is strong. The production enthusiasm of the main refinery has increased; Saudi Arabia’s lowering of official prices is beneficial for the oil market, while PX prices remain firm due to tight supply and demand and the economic feasibility of North American oil transfers; The supply of crude oil in major producing countries has contracted, coupled with positive monthly EIA reports, resulting in stronger short-term oil prices; The cost support for toluene is acceptable, but the short-term market preference is upward, and the price of toluene is relatively strong.

In terms of downstream px, the price of px has increased this week and remained stable over the weekend. On July 10th, the benchmark price of PX was 8250 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the price was 8400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.82%. PX has good profits, overall load has increased, and the supply side is showing a trend of oversupply; The downstream PTA market has shown strong performance, benefiting PX; The terminal polyester end load is at a relatively high position, boosting the confidence of industry chain operators, and the buying atmosphere in the PX market is still acceptable in the short term.

In terms of OX, this week’s OX consolidation and operation showed average transaction enthusiasm and market stability. On July 10th, the price of OX was 8100 yuan/ton, and on July 14th, it was 8100 yuan/ton. There was no change during the week. The upstream mixed xylene price of OX fluctuated and increased, while the downstream phthalic anhydride market stabilized. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers was average, and the downstream demand market stabilized. The overall upward momentum of the adjacent benzene market weakened, and downward pressure remained. In the future, the adjacent benzene market was weak and stabilized.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices have rebounded after falling this week. On July 10th, the benchmark price of gasoline was 8658.40 yuan/ton, while on July 14th, the price was 8574.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.97%. As the temperature gradually rises, the demand for gasoline in cars increases, and people travel more during the summer season. The tourism industry is booming, and gasoline demand is improving. However, due to the high prices in the early stage, the upward trend of gasoline has moderately narrowed. Under the peak season, gasoline prices are still relatively strong.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In July, due to the impact of the consumption tax policy on mixed aromatic hydrocarbons, there was a strong atmosphere of market speculation, and the mixed xylene market took the opportunity to rise; With the fall of the U.S. Dollar Index this week, market risk appetite has been improved, crude oil has fluctuated upward, and the supply of mixed xylene market has increased. Holders are optimistic about the future market, and they are reluctant to sell. Downstream customers and some traders are willing to make inquiries, and they are willing to buy. Supported by multiple advantages, the price of mixed xylene has risen all the way, and the market atmosphere has continued to rise. The future market may continue to rise slightly. Pay attention to the market trends of crude oil and gasoline, as well as the impact of mixed xylene and downstream equipment dynamics, port inventory, and external markets on the price of mixed xylene.