According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price increase in the domestic heavy rare earth market has slowed down. On July 27th, the rare earth index was 463 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 54.02% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 70.85% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The price increase of Dysprosium(III) oxide, dysprosium iron alloy and dysprosium metal in China is limited. As of the 28th, the price of Dysprosium(III) oxide was 2.31 million yuan/ton, up 0.87% this week; The price of dysprosium iron alloy is 2.215 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.91% this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 2.93 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.03% this week; The domestic price of terbium series is mainly fluctuating, with the domestic price of terbium oxide being 7.175 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium being 9.15 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price increase in the heavy rare earth market has slowed down, the blockade in Myanmar has been lifted, and the willingness of shippers to ship has significantly increased. In addition, the news of Vietnam’s rare earth production increase recently has had a certain impact on the psychology of merchants. Vietnam’s rare earth reserves are the second in the world, but the production is not outstanding. The news of production increase has had a certain impact on the rare earth industry. In terms of domestic orders, the long-term order submission procurement has come to an end, and the intention of heavy rare earth holding merchants to ship has increased. In addition, the supply of heavy rare earth minerals from Southeast Asia has increased, and the wait-and-see sentiment in the rare earth market remains. The bearish factors have slowed down the rise of heavy rare earth in China.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the deployment of new energy vehicles to rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing rural consumption potential and increasing sales of new energy vehicles. The increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles is beneficial for the domestic prices of medium and heavy rare earths, and the heavy rare earth market still has support.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, supporting the domestic rare earth market prices accordingly.

Future Market Forecast: In the near future, the supply of rare earth production enterprises has increased, but downstream demand has not actually improved. It is expected that the market price of heavy rare earth will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving machines, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.