Expected improvement in demand, slight rebound in electrolytic manganese (September 4th to September 11th)

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market slightly increased this week (September 4th to September 11th). The market price in East China was at 13900 yuan/ton on September 11th, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton.

 

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In terms of manganese ore: This week, there was a positive turn in the manganese ore market, with the silicon manganese market breaking through 7000 yuan/ton and continuing to rise. The confidence in the manganese based market was fully driven, and the enthusiasm of miners increased. Manganese ore prices showed varying degrees of upward trend, with a price increase of 1-1.5 yuan/ton. Transactions also showed improvement, and the overall mood of manganese ore remained high. Low price shipments gradually decreased, and the difficulty of negotiation increased. The overall market showed an upward trend.

 

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar chart above, it can be seen that prices have been declining for 5 consecutive months since December 2022. After a slight recovery in May, they have been declining for 8 consecutive weeks since June, and prices have slightly increased this week.

 

The electrolytic manganese market has slightly rebounded this week, rising by about 100 yuan/ton, with mainstream spot market prices ranging from 12500 to 12600 yuan/ton. As the market’s atmosphere of gold and silver intensifies, there is a partial increase in downstream demand. In the early stage, some manufacturers limited production due to the downward trend in prices, and the supply of electrolytic manganese was slightly tight. With the expected improvement in demand and the boost of tight supply, market prices slightly rebounded this week. The recent introduction of steel bidding prices is relatively close to the market, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on the market. With the improvement of demand, market transactions have increased compared to the previous period, and the market is waiting for the subsequent introduction of steel bidding prices. In the future, the market is on the wait-and-see side and will remain temporarily stable in the short term. Pre holiday stocking may bring some upward space.

 

This week, the silicon manganese market slightly increased, and the market mentality improved. The price support sentiment increased, and the mainstream steel bidding prices settled, rising month on month. The spot market quotation also rose. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market quotation for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6600-6700 yuan/ton on September 8th, with an average market price of 6681 yuan/ton.

 

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Related data:

 

Customs data shows that the total export volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) in June 2023 was approximately 24847.275 tons, an increase of 15.74% month on month and a decrease of 19.20% year on year.

 

In June 2023, the total import volume of unwrought manganese, manganese waste and powder (electrolytic manganese) was approximately 1520.011 tons, a decrease of 39.2% compared to the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 51.99%.

On September 10th, the base metal index stood at 1233 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.70% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.06% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, in the 36th week of 2023 (9.4-9.8), there were a total of 18 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the list of commodity prices. Among them, there was one commodity that increased by more than 5%, accounting for 4.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities with the highest increase were magnesium (6.41%), metallic praseodymium (4.69%), and praseodymium oxide (3.94%). There are four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-2.33%), silver (-1.70%), and copper (-1.56%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.59%.

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