According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the recent price range of toluene has been narrow from 11.1 to 11.12. On November 12th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6890 yuan/ton, while on November 1st, the benchmark price was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. During the cycle, the low point was 6860 yuan/ton, and the high point was 6970 yuan/ton.

Since November, international crude oil prices have continued to decline, and toluene cost support has weakened

Since November, the overall international crude oil price has declined, weakening the cost support for toluene. As of November 10th, the WTI12 contract closed at $75.31 per barrel, with a settlement of 77.17 yuan per barrel; The Brent 01 contract closed at $81.58 per barrel and settled at $81.43 per barrel.

Domestic mixed blending demand is gradually entering the off-season, and toluene demand support is weakening

Since the fourth quarter, the domestic mixed blending market has entered a low season, and downstream inquiries have been light. The demand for toluene mixed blending continues to weaken. As of November 10th, the gasoline production of Shandong Independent Refinery decreased by 96600 tons compared to mid October, while diesel production decreased by 181000 tons.

PX starts to stabilize toluene and obtain necessary support

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, there has been little change in spot supply during the maintenance of some xylene units. Recently, the trend of international crude oil prices has declined, and PX external prices have been affected by this. As of the 9th, the closing prices in Asia were 967-969 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 992-994 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is around 70%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

External market prices lower, toluene port inventory slightly increased on a weekly basis

On the one hand, since the fourth quarter, the demand for mixed blending in North America has continued to decline, the Asia US interest rate gap has severely shrunk, and the price of toluene in Asia has decreased. As of November 10th, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 839-841 US dollars/ton; On the other hand, the increase in domestic refining and separation, as well as the export of toluene, coupled with the continued increase in toluene port inventory, has increased the pressure on the supply side of toluene. As of November 9th, the inventory of toluene in East China was 18000 tons, while the inventory of toluene in South China was 11000 tons. Overall, there was a significant decrease from the high point of 51000 tons in late October and a slight increase from 26000 tons in early November.

Future Market Forecast: Currently, international crude oil prices have stabilized at low levels in the near future, and the cost of toluene is at a low level; The demand for downstream mixing of toluene and other industries continues to weaken, coupled with limited overall supply changes in the short term, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to narrow in the short term.