According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of acetic acid has continued to rise recently. On April 16th, the average market price of acetic acid was 3450 yuan/ton, an increase of 350 yuan/ton compared to the price of 3100 yuan/ton on April 1st, an increase of 11.29%.

Since April, the price of acetic acid has shown a strong upward trend. Due to the low price of acetic acid at the end of March, some downstream buyers have increased their willingness to seek lower prices. At the same time, with the arrival of the Qingming Festival, enterprises are considering downstream replenishment needs, and factory quotations are intentionally pushing up; After the return of the Qingming holiday, downstream acetic acid factories showed a strong willingness to increase prices, and the demand for replenishment gradually increased. Acetic acid manufacturers shipped smoothly, and inventory pressure weakened. Later, the Sopu unit in Jiangsu shut down due to malfunctions, and the Tianjian unit reduced its load. The utilization rate of on-site production capacity significantly decreased, and acetic acid prices in various regions increased. The market trading atmosphere was positive, and acetic acid continued to rise.

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuates widely. On April 16th, the average price in the domestic market was 2640 yuan/ton, an overall increase of 0.65% compared to the price of 2623 yuan/ton on April 1st. In the early stage, the concentration of spring inspections for domestic methanol plants was average, with the main focus on maintaining high operating levels and weak market prices; In the later stage, the inventory of sample enterprises in mainland China was relatively low, coupled with a significant drop in prices in the early stage, leading to strong exploration of price increases. However, due to downstream resistance to high price inventory, the overall market atmosphere for methanol is still acceptable.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is showing a strong upward trend. On April 16th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5650.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.96% compared to the price of 5487.50 yuan/ton on April 1st. The upstream acetic acid price has risen strongly, and the cost of acetic anhydride has significantly increased. Acetic anhydride enterprises have stable production, sufficient market supply, and downstream production is stable. Follow up on demand when entering the market, and under the influence of cost, the price of acetic anhydride has increased accordingly.

From a technical perspective, the future market of acetic acid may continue to be strong and upward. Since March 31, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 25.09%.

At present, acetic acid is at a mid low level in one year, a mid low level in two years, and a low level in three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average value of acetic acid in the past three years is 4528.27 yuan/ton, with a median value of 5958.34 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 2866.67 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 9050.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest historical price difference in the past three years) is 583.33 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest historical price difference in the past three years) is 5600 yuan/ton.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst from Business Society believes that there is no pressure on the inventory of acetic acid enterprises, the market capacity utilization rate has decreased, the supply side news is positive, downstream production is stable, and entry into the market is followed up according to demand. The market trading atmosphere is good, and manufacturers have smooth shipments. It is expected that the acetic acid market will continue to operate strongly in the future, and attention will be paid to downstream follow-up in the future.