According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot price of natural rubber in China has been continuously rising recently. As of May 28th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14500 yuan/ton, up 2.69% from May 21st at around 14120 yuan/ton.

Recently, the natural rubber market has been on the rise, with the Shanghai rubber 09 contract fluctuating from around 14850 yuan/ton to around 15150 yuan/ton. Currently, Thailand imports latex barrels at around 14900-15000 yuan/ton, bulk at around 13200-13600 yuan/ton, Vietnam imports latex bulk at around 12100-12300 yuan/ton, and domestically produced latex bulk at around 12000 yuan/ton.

Cost side: Currently, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by weather, resulting in slow rubber cutting progress. As of May 28th, the price of Thai glue is 80.2 Thai baht/kg, with an increase in price; The Yunnan production area in China has been affected by drought, while Hainan has been affected by rainfall, resulting in poor rubber cutting and relatively tight supply of raw materials, leading to an increase in market prices.

On the demand side: Downstream tire maintenance enterprises are gradually recovering their production scheduling, with a focus on rigid demand procurement. As of May 28th, the operating load of semi steel tires for domestic tire enterprises is around 80%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.7%; At present, the inventory in the tire market is relatively sufficient, and overall shipments are average. Tire companies are cautious in purchasing raw materials, with a focus on immediate needs.

Inventory: As of May 26, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao was 539100 tons, a decrease of 8900 tons or 1.63% compared to the previous period. The inventory in the bonded zone was 71400 tons, a decrease of 1.38%; The general trade inventory was 467700 tons, a decrease of 1.66%. At present, the port is in a state of destocking.

At present, the price monitoring of natural rubber is at a one-year high, a two-year high, and a three-year high. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of natural rubber in the past three years is 12659.47 yuan/ton, with a median value of 12835 yuan/ton, a minimum value of 11170.00 yuan/ton, and a maximum value of 14500.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (lower than the lowest price difference in the past three years) is 3330 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (lower than the highest price difference in the past three years) is 0 yuan/ton.

Market forecast: The supply side is affected by weather, with limited domestic and foreign raw material output and high raw material prices, which will support the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side are in the off-season with average transactions. Tire companies have limited procurement and are cautious in purchasing high priced rubber raw materials; At present, the inventory of natural rubber in ports continues to decrease. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to rise in the short term.