Ethylene glycol prices rise in October
The price of ethylene glycol rose in October. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of October 12th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4741.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.79% from September 26th.
On October 11, 2024, the operating price of ethylene glycol at the port was 4780-4830 yuan/ton, and the basis of spot contracts fell within the day. This week, the basis fell to+45 to+48; In October, the base price will be quoted at+50 to+55 yuan/ton; The base price for November is+49 to+52 yuan/ton.
On October 11th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained stable, with prices in the northwest region ranging from 4230-4350 yuan/ton, including taxes.
On October 12, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $572/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $568/ton.
Overview of Ethylene Glycol Fundamentals
Supply side: With the price recovery, the total operating rate of domestic ethylene glycol has begun to rise, and the production of domestic ethylene glycol has also rebounded, and there is still a significant expectation of increase in the later stage. However, the explicit inventory data of ethylene glycol in ports is relatively low. As of October 10, 2024, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in major ports in East China was 530000 tons, which is at a low level for the year. In the recent news, the number of offshore bidding goods has increased, the supply of goods from Taiwan, China Province, Malaysia has been sold, the supply of goods from South Korea will also be opened, and the short-term arrival is expected to increase. The overseas 360000 ton plant in the United States is restarting, and there are expectations of supply growth in the future.
Demand side: Downstream polyester load is relatively high, but polyester production and sales performance is poor after the holiday. The follow-up of terminal demand is weak, and there is little hope for further demand growth.
Future expectations
The recent surge in ethylene glycol prices is mainly due to favorable domestic macroeconomic conditions, coupled with low port supply; In addition, the resonance of rising prices in the polyester sector has caused the price of ethylene glycol to climb to a high level for the year.
The price surged in the short term, with trading prices fluctuating at high levels this week, and the price center fell back on Thursday. At present, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market. It is reported that a certain domestic trading company has completed high-level hedging and mainly shipped on a basis basis. The overall market trading sentiment was light in the second half of the week.
Given that the current price of ethylene glycol is at a high level, the upward space has narrowed, and the future market is cautiously optimistic, we will observe changes in international crude oil prices. If the market lacks new positive news to boost it, we cannot rule out the possibility of a downward correction.
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