The nickel price trend continued to decline this week (10.19-10.25), with weak demand and continued oversupply of nickel. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of October 25th, spot nickel was reported at 127266 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.62%.

Macro wise: After China launched its most aggressive economic stimulus plan since 2020, the trend of base metals rebounded briefly, but then fluctuated and fell back as demand concerns continued. The uncertainty of the US presidential election has also raised concerns about the demand outlook, with nickel prices continuing to fluctuate weakly.

On the supply side, foreign inventory is still showing an upward trend, price pressure is still present, and the number of domestic goods that meet delivery quality has decreased. As of October 25th, Shanghai nickel inventory was 28008 tons, a decrease of 897 tons from last Friday; On October 25th, LME nickel inventory was 135522 tons, an increase of 1152 tons from last Friday.

In terms of demand: The overall market situation is average, with some first-time buyers purchasing in moderation at low prices. As there is already a certain amount of reserve inventory in the early stage, the actual increase in shipment quantity is limited. Some merchants have expressed that downstream customers will be cautious. Boosted by favorable economic policies, on October 25th, the benchmark price of stainless steel plates in Shengyi Society was 12778.57 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.59% compared to the beginning of this month. However, the inventory pressure has not improved, and the company continues to self regulate and control production, operating weakly.

Market forecast: The trend of strong supply and weak demand in the upstream and downstream continues, and overall confidence is still insufficient. We look forward to macroeconomic positive news to boost, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak and consolidate in the short term.