According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market experienced a wide decline in November 2024. From November 1st to 28th, the domestic butadiene market price dropped from 12325 yuan/ton to 9675 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 21.5% during the period.

In the first half of the month, the domestic butadiene market price decreased from 12325 yuan/ton to 10937 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 11.26% during the period. The downstream synthetic rubber futures market has a weak trend, which has a weak impact on the spot market mentality. The downstream market has a strong wait-and-see attitude and lacks demand support. The butadiene market has a weak trend this week, and Sinopec has lowered its price to 11000 yuan/ton.

Mid month: The domestic butadiene market price for this cycle has decreased from 11287.5 yuan/ton to 10162.5 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 9.97% during the cycle. On the supply side, the Tianjin area has put into operation, and the market expects a relatively loose supply in the future. The port inventory in East China is also high, and overall there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 10200 yuan/ton.

Late of the month: The domestic butadiene market fluctuated slightly during this cycle, with a slight slowdown in the decline. On the supply side, the overall market supply remained loose this week, while downstream demand remained weak. Overall, there are many negative factors on the supply side. On the demand side, the downstream synthetic rubber market trend is weak, and the downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong. The lack of demand support has led to a weak trend in the butadiene market this week, and Sinopec has lowered the price to 9800 yuan/ton.

On the cost side: International crude oil maintained a range bound fluctuation trend this cycle, with a wide decline in oil prices by the end of the month. On November 25th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $68.94 per barrel, a decrease of $2.30 or 3.2%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $73.01 per barrel, a decrease of $2.16 or 2.9% The crude oil analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the significant drop in oil prices this time is due to the short-term geopolitical risk reduction caused by the ceasefire news. In the later stage, the trend may still return to the supply and demand fundamentals, as the turmoil in the Middle East has not had a greater impact on crude oil supply than expected by the market. In addition, OPEC’s production control policy will continue to play a regulatory role in oil prices. Considering the current low level of oil prices, it is expected that crude oil will not have a significant downward momentum in the short term, but the market should also be cautious about the risks brought by short-term adjustments.

Supply side: The listed price of butadiene for various sales companies of Sinopec has been lowered multiple times this month, with a price of 9800 yuan/ton as of the 28th, a cumulative decrease of 2600 yuan/ton compared to the same period last week’s 12400 yuan/ton. The 120000 tons/year butadiene plant of North Huajin has been restarted in October; Fujian United’s 180000 tons/year butadiene plant was shut down for maintenance on October 10th; Jilin Petrochemical’s 190000 ton plant shut down on August 25th and restarted on October 16th. Recently, the comprehensive operating rate of the domestic butadiene industry has not changed much, and the overall supply is relatively stable.

Demand side: The domestic styrene butadiene rubber market has experienced a wide decline in this cycle. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 27th, the price of styrene butadiene rubber in the East China market was 14700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1500 yuan/ton from 16200 yuan/ton on October 31st. Raw material butadiene continues to decline, styrene prices have slightly adjusted, and the cost center of styrene butadiene rubber has shifted downward. Downstream all steel tire production slightly decreased; The production of styrene butadiene rubber is basically stable, and the supply pressure is not significant. The supply price of styrene butadiene rubber has been lowered, and as of November 27th, the mainstream market price of 1502 styrene butadiene rubber in Fushun, Jihua, Yangzi, and Qilu in East China is around 14600-14900 yuan/ton.

External market: The butadiene external market experienced a wide decline in November, and as of November 28th, the closing price of butadiene external market: among them, the FOB price in South Korea was reported at 1055-1065 US dollars per ton; China CFR reports 1095-1105 USD/ton; European butadiene FOB Rotterdam closed at $1015-1025 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 980-990 euros/ton.

Market forecast: Due to the increase in supply in the near future, the overall atmosphere of the spot market is weak. Port cargo sources have continued to accumulate recently, and new facilities in Shandong have been put into operation. The market expects loose supply in the future, and the supply side is bearish. In terms of demand, the overall downstream synthetic rubber market has been weak in recent times, providing essential support for the butadiene market. However, overall, the market atmosphere is still relatively weak due to the impact of loose supply, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.