According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated and rose from December 23 to December 30, 2024. On December 30th, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, and on December 23rd, the benchmark price of toluene was 6050 yuan/ton, which remained stable during the period. This week, the trend of the toluene market is stable but slightly strong, with low prices difficult to find in the market and a slight increase in spot market prices. The factory price has not changed much. The demand performance of the diversified industry in Shandong region is good, and the factory prices of local refining enterprises have slightly increased, which has driven the improvement of the spot market atmosphere in East China and other places, and the holding side has a strong mentality of supporting prices. However, in terms of downstream demand, the performance is relatively stable, with an overall trend towards rigid demand. The market trading atmosphere is weak, lacking actual demand support, and there is significant resistance for market prices to continue to rise.

On the cost side: The crude oil market has shown a strong trend this week, with prices overall rising during the cycle, driving an improvement in the atmosphere of the spot market. As of December 27th, international crude oil futures have risen. The settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $70.60 per barrel, an increase of $0.98 or 1.40%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $74.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.91 or 1.20%.

Supply side: Sinopec’s toluene quotation is stable, and the company is currently operating normally. The production of the equipment is stable, and the products are mostly for personal use, with stable production and sales. As of December 30th, East China Company quoted 6000 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 6050 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 6000-6050 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 6100 yuan/ton.

Demand side: Weak support for downward demand in the external market for xylene

On December 28th, the price of xylene in the petrochemical sales company was temporarily stable, and the current execution price has dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 7100 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably and selling normally, with a price reduction of 50 yuan/ton compared to December 23rd. PX prices continue to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of December 27th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were 795-796 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 820-822 US dollars/ton CFR China, a decrease of 10 US dollars/ton from December 20th

Market forecast: The recent stable to strong trend of crude oil will provide a certain boost to the toluene market. The recent performance of the demand side has been decent, boosting the sentiment of the toluene market. However, the actual transaction situation in the spot market has been poor recently, and the lack of demand support has led to insufficient upward momentum in the toluene market. It is expected that the market will maintain a stable to weak operation in the short term.