First, the price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the zinc market rose and then rose in August, and the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted, and the overall zinc price remained stable. As of August 31, the average price of zinc price was 22,142.50 yuan / ton, compared with the price of 2,1960.00 yuan / ton of zinc at the beginning of the month (August 1), a drop of 0.83%, down 15.32%.

Second, the market trend analysis

Product aspects:

August 31, London LME market zinc closing price of 2457.00 US dollars / ton, compared with the beginning of the month (August 1) zinc closing price of 2,555 US dollars / ton, the price fell 93.00 US dollars / ton, August 31, London LME market spot price 2503.50 -2504.00 US dollars / ton, compared with the beginning of the month, the price of 2627.00-2628.00 US dollars / ton fell 124 US dollars / ton. On August 31, Shanghai futures market futures zinc closing price was 22,285 yuan / ton, compared with the opening price of 21,635 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the price rose 650 yuan / ton. The rise in domestic futures zinc prices has driven the price of spot zinc to rise, and the price of zinc has fluctuated.

Data statistics

According to Manzhouli Customs statistics, from January to July this year, Manzhouliguan District imported 18,000 tons of zinc ore and concentrates, an increase of 50.3%, accounting for 10.19% of the country’s total imports in the same period, an increase of 85.7%. In 2018, global zinc concentrate production showed a growth trend. The supply of zinc mine in the market was loose. Due to the impact of supply and demand, domestic zinc prices fluctuated and fell, and the overall trend of decline was fundamental. The fundamental supply and demand structure also changed fundamentally from the previous two years. 2018 The zinc market is generally in a state of oversupply, and the zinc price is weaker.

Third, the outlook outlook

Business analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that the Sino-US trade war is difficult to end in the short term, resulting in weak macroeconomic performance, the market is not good for the economic outlook, and the zinc market is dragged down by the macro economy. In the third and fourth quarters, many international Large-scale zinc mining enterprises resumed production. At the demand side, affected by the traditional gold, silver and silver, the demand for zinc ingots will pick up. The Sino-US trade war has escalated. The United States has imposed tariffs on China’s 200 billion U.S. dollars at any time. In the name of China’s introduction of tariffs on US goods, zinc ore and zinc concentrates are subject to a 25% tariff. The price of zinc has risen. However, due to the limited amount of zinc ingots imported from the United States and the downstream products of zinc ingots exported to the United States, the impact of tariff increases on the market of zinc is limited, and it is difficult to change the impact of the overall imbalance between supply and demand. In general, the zinc market is still in a state of oversupply, and zinc prices are unlikely to rise sharply. However, at the same time, it is stimulated by favorable news such as tariffs. Zinc prices still have room to rise. With the arrival of Jinjiuyin 10, demand has picked up, and zinc is expected to be in the market. The price fluctuated and rose, but the average price of zinc in September is still difficult to exceed 23,000 yuan / ton. The market outlook should pay more attention to the start of zinc mines.