Price data

Domestic 93 # Gasoline Distribution Average Price Trend Chart

Average Distribution Price Trend Chart of 0# Diesel Oil in China

According to the price monitoring of business associations, gasoline and diesel prices fell this week, domestic gasoline prices were 6534 yuan/ton, 0.16% lower than last week’s gasoline prices; domestic diesel prices were 6414 yuan/ton, down 1.96% from last week’s diesel prices.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: At 24:00 on August 6, the price of refined oil was lowered. This week, the international oil price showed a sharp decline trend. A new round of negative price adjustment of refined oil started. As of August 8, the latest crude oil change rate monitored by business associations was – 2.04%. The purchase intention of refined oil market was relatively low.

Industry Chain: On international crude oil, Trump once again overturned his previous commitment to impose a 10% tariff on 300 billion Chinese exports in September, and the EIA crude oil inventory report was skewed to suppress crude oil prices. The price of WTI crude oil once approached the $50/barrel threshold. On August 9, the price of WTI crude oil was $52.54/barrel, with a weekly decline of 5.61%.

Market: This week’s sharp decline in international oil prices has depressed the refined oil market. For gasoline, refinery stocks are running at low levels, and the prices of alkylated oil and MTBE and other accessories are basically stable, which supports the price of gasoline, so the weekly decline of gasoline is only 0.16%. On the diesel side, this week’s persistent high temperature and rainy weather and typhoon warning have also brought pressure on terminal demand for refined oil, so the price of diesel oil market follows the pace of crude oil decline. On the supply side, according to statistics, the operating rate of main refineries is about 79% recently, which is about 2% higher than that of last week. The operating rate of atmospheric and vacuum distillation in Shandong Province is about 63%, which is about 3% higher than that of last week. Increased supply is also one aspect of suppressing the market price of refined oil.

3. Future Market Forecast

Lu Xingjun, an analyst of refined oil products from business associations, believes that the possibility of a substantial recovery in international oil prices next week is low, and it is expected that low volatility will run. The gasoline and diesel market is still confident in the “gold, silver and ten” peak demand season, and supports the price of refined oil. It is expected that the price of refined oil market will stabilize and improve next week.