1. Name of commodity: standard aluminium ingot (99.70)

2. Latest price (2019.9.24): 14326.67 yuan/ton

3. Main points of analysis:

(1) Ring-to-Ring Decline in Domestic Production

According to data released by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI) on Friday (September 20), global raw aluminium production increased to 5.407 million tons in August and 5.444 million tons revised in July. Among them, China’s raw aluminium production fell to 3.05 million tons in August and revised to 3.06 million tons in July.

In addition, according to the National Bureau of Statistics on September 16, the output of raw aluminium (electrolytic aluminium) in August was 2.970 million tons, down 0.3% from the same period last year; the output of raw aluminium in January-August was 23.47 million tons, up 1.4% from the same period last year.

It is reported that production reduction factors in August include: successive production reduction incidents in Weiqiao, Xinfa, Aba Aluminum Plant in Shandong Province, partial closure of Zhongwang Aluminum Industry and replacement of Jinning Aluminum and Magnesium Production Capacity; new capacity-increasing enterprises include Yunnan Aluminum Haixin, Guizhou Denggao, China Aluminum Huarun, Mengtai Aluminum Industry, Shaanxi Meixin, etc., and overall, production reduction is greater than production increase. 。

At present, domestic monthly output of about 3 million tons is at a low level.

(2) Previous news factors triggered the rise basically fell in place, and the current trading is stable.

4. Future market forecast: At present, supply and demand are relatively stable. It is expected that the price of aluminium ingot will keep oscillating and running smoothly in the near future. Later, it will pay attention to the actual trading situation of the market.